A South African couple documented nearly 300 humpback whales gathered together off the west coast of South Africa last December—a sighting that underscores one of conservation's genuine success stories while raising new concerns about unintended consequences of geopolitical conflict.
Chris and Monique Fallows, with Chris being a renowned fine art wildlife photographer who has documented marine animals for 35 years, witnessed what's known as a supergroup. "It was extraordinary," Fallows said. "Quite quickly we realized that there must be several hundred whales coming together in one particular area." The couple documented 299 humpback whales in the group by photographing their tails, known as flukes. The organization Happywhale, which maintains a global database of whales built largely by citizen scientists, confirmed the count. Alex Vogel, the Africa coordinator for Happywhale, said it appears to be the biggest group of humpback whales sighted.
The Conservation Win
The rebound represents what scientists call one of the marine environment's strongest conservation successes. Humpback numbers have recovered dramatically in the southern hemisphere—from less than 10,000 at the height of whaling to more than 100,000 whales now, according to assessments by scientists and the International Whaling Commission, which monitors whale numbers. This recovery followed the international whale hunting ban that came into effect 40 years ago in 1986.
Els Vermeulen, the chief scientist at the University of Pretoria's Whale Unit in South Africa, explained the mechanics of the recovery. Humpback supergroups started to be seen again about 14 years ago around 2012, likely as a direct result of their recovery from whaling. "In general, the moratorium on whaling can be classified as one of the strongest conservation success stories in the marine environment," Vermeulen said, who holds a doctorate in zoology. Humpbacks typically remain solitary or move in small pods, but they sometimes gather in supergroups in food-rich areas where they feed on krill or small fish. Vermeulen noted that humpbacks feeding in supergroups make underwater sounds that attract other whales.
Sightings of humpbacks are increasing in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere as well, suggesting the species' recovery is spreading geographically.
An Emerging Threat
Yet the recovery faces mounting pressure. The World Wildlife Fund reports that while humpbacks have seen the biggest comeback from whaling, recovery has been mixed for other whale species. Seven out of the 14 great whale species are classified as endangered or vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, including the critically endangered North Atlantic right whales, which number only around 380 now. Various threats persist: entanglement in commercial fishing equipment, collisions with ships, and climate change.
A new and unexpected threat has emerged from Middle Eastern instability. Vermeulen raised concern about the conflict in the Middle East and its shipping consequences. A preliminary assessment she co-authored showed that shipping around the southern point of Africa had quadrupled since December 2023, when the Israel-Hamas war broke out and Yemen's Houthi rebels began attacking ships in the Red Sea. The situation worsened with the Iran war and the security crisis over the Strait of Hormuz, diverting additional ships around Africa.
More whales and more shipping clearly increase collision risks. Gregg Oelofse, the coastal and environmental manager for the city of Cape Town, acknowledged the problem. "We'll see the propellor strike often through the whale's body," Oelofse said. "So, it's like these big cuts in the whale's body." Because most whales killed by ships sink in the ocean, detailed statistics don't exist. But some whale carcasses wash ashore with clear evidence of vessel strikes.
Vermeulen and others are now lobbying for official speed limits for ships near the South African coast to give them time to spot whales in their path. The irony is stark: just as one conservation policy succeeded brilliantly, geopolitical events thousands of miles away have created an unintended hazard for the very species that policy protected.
Why This Matters:
The humpback whale recovery demonstrates that international agreements and enforced regulations can achieve measurable conservation goals—a fact worth acknowledging across the political spectrum. However, the emerging shipping crisis illustrates how government policies and interventions, even well-intentioned ones, generate unintended consequences that ripple across ecosystems. The quadrupling of shipping traffic around Africa since December 2023 wasn't caused by environmental policy failure but by geopolitical conflict and the security decisions it prompted. This situation raises questions about how to balance competing policy objectives: maintaining security interests, protecting commerce, and preserving marine life. The proposed speed limits represent a regulatory response, but they'll impose costs on shipping companies and potentially affect global supply chains. The challenge ahead isn't simply adding more rules—it's finding solutions that account for the complex, interconnected nature of modern maritime activity while respecting both commercial interests and conservation gains.