The US government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and South Africa now faces a 12.5% tariff in the US, up from 10%. The decision landed after South Africa’s government, private sector and organised agriculture made submissions to US authorities against the rise. The message, and the clarification, did not find a fertile ear.
The numbers tell the story of who gets squeezed when distant power brokers move the levers. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, to $144 million. In the last quarter, exports fell by 39% to $81 million. For the full year, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US totalled $504 million in 2025, down 3% from the previous year. That annual decline does not suggest the previous 30% “Liberation Day tariffs” had no negative impact on the agricultural sector, because South Africa benefited from substantial exports in the second quarter.
Who Holds the Levers
The US government raised tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour. That’s the apparatus speaking in the language of enforcement. South Africa’s government, private sector and organised agriculture all made submissions to US authorities against the rise, but the tariff still went up.
South Africa now faces a 12.5% tariff in the US, up from 10%. That is not ideal, but it is still better than the 30% tariff South Africa faced before. The US has also raised tariffs for a range of countries, including some of South Africa’s agricultural competitors, such as Australia, Peru and Chile, who are also at these levels. Oranges, fruit juices and nuts are still exempt from these tariffs.
Who Pays at the Bottom
The US remains an important market for South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for about 4% of agricultural exports worth $15.1 billion in 2025. The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots and nuts. When tariffs rise, the costs don’t sit in boardrooms or ministries. They hit the export volumes, the farmers, the workers, and the supply chains built around those shipments.
At the time of the higher “Liberation Day Tariffs”, some South African agricultural exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs in the second quarter of 2025 and exported more volume than usual during that period. Then the pause ended, and the numbers cooled. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024, to $144 million. In the last quarter, exports fell by 39% to $81 million.
What the Experts Say, and Who They Are
Wandile Sihlobo wrote that in 2026, South Africa may see better agricultural export activity because tariffs are far lower than the 30% faced in much of 2025. He said the new 12.5% tariff is not desirable, but it is still much better and more aligned with some of South Africa’s competitors. Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
That’s the reform lane in plain sight: submissions, clarifications, and hopes that a lower tariff will make the damage more manageable. The structure stays intact. The gatekeepers still decide who gets access, at what price, and under what conditions. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US totalled $504 million in 2025, down 3% from the previous year, and the market remains important even as the terms get harsher.
The US has also raised tariffs for a range of countries, including some of South Africa’s agricultural competitors, such as Australia, Peru and Chile, who are also at these levels. Oranges, fruit juices and nuts are still exempt from these tariffs. The exemptions matter. So do the exclusions. The rest is a lesson in how trade power gets exercised from above, while everyone below is told to adapt.