South Africa's agricultural exports to the United States plummeted by 39% in the last quarter of 2025, falling to just $81 million, as new US tariffs began to bite. This sharp decline follows the US government's decision to raise tariffs against South Africa and several other nations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The stated reason: a perceived failure to enforce prohibitions on goods produced with forced labor.
Preceding this, South Africa’s government, private sector, and organized agriculture had all made submissions to US authorities, arguing against the tariff increase. Their collective message, however, found no fertile ear in Washington. The new tariff rate now stands at 12.5%, an increase from the previous 10%.
Foreign Imposition
This foreign imposition comes despite South Africa being a significant agricultural partner for the US. The American market accounted for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports, valued at $15.1 billion in 2025. Key products shipped include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. Oranges, fruit juices, and nuts remain exempt from these specific tariffs.
The US also applied these increased tariffs to some of South Africa’s agricultural competitors, including Australia, Peru, and Chile, placing them at similar levels. This broad application suggests a wider strategy of economic leverage, not merely targeted enforcement. The previous 30% “Liberation Day Tariffs” had already demonstrated a negative impact on the sector, despite a temporary boost from exporters taking advantage of a 90-day pause in the second quarter of 2025.
The Cost to Producers
After that brief pause, export activity cooled dramatically. Agricultural exports from South Africa to the US decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, totaling $144 million. The subsequent 39% drop in the last quarter of 2025 underscores the severe economic pressure on South African producers. For the full year, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US reached $504 million in 2025, marking a 3% decline from the year prior. This annual decline clearly indicates the previous 30% tariffs had a detrimental effect, even with the second-quarter export surge.
These figures represent direct losses for the native working class involved in agriculture, from farm laborers to small business owners. Their livelihoods are now subject to the dictates of foreign trade policy, framed under a moralistic banner of "forced labor" enforcement.
Elite Accommodation
Wandile Sihlobo, who serves as the presidential envoy on agriculture and land, as well as chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, offered a muted assessment. He stated that while the new 12.5% tariff is "not desirable," it is "still much better" than the 30% tariffs faced for much of 2025. Sihlobo, also a senior research fellow at Stellenbosch University, suggested that 2026 might see improved agricultural export activity due to these relatively lower tariffs. This perspective from a key elite figure highlights an acceptance of externally imposed conditions, rather than a robust defense of national economic sovereignty. The local elite appears to be managing decline, not resisting it.