The World Bank raised its forecast for Africa’s 2026 economic growth to 4.3% and urged governments to invest in artificial intelligence, even as its own report warned poor households risk being shut out of the technology. The bank’s growth projection rose from 4.1% in April. Its call for AI investment lands in a region where mobile internet is the world’s least affordable relative to income.
Growth From the Top, Poverty Below
Africa’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2025, and the World Bank said stronger performance across the region supported its upgraded forecast. In its Africa Economic Update report on Tuesday, the bank said the region weathered a tough global environment, including higher energy prices linked to the Iran war’s impact on supply chains.
“Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region,” Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said. Zambia, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Angola all received upgraded growth forecasts, which the bank attributed to years of economic reforms and improving economic management.
But aggregate growth hasn’t yet made a dent in poverty, the World Bank warned. Per capita income growth is expected to rise to 1.8% this year from 1.6% last year, still trailing broader economic growth across much of the continent. “The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities,” Dabalen said.
The bank urged governments to focus on AI investment, pointing to massive investment in countries such as the United States that lifts global growth. Yet Dabalen said Africa lacks the infrastructure and capital to compete with larger economies in AI development. He said the region could benefit from practical, low-cost applications on affordable devices, including tools to support student learning, help farmers detect and manage livestock diseases, and automate small-business accounting.
Access Has a Price
The World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update said AI could help expand Nigeria’s and other African countries’ digital economies and reduce poverty, but warned poor households risk exclusion. Nigeria’s GitHub developer base has expanded tenfold since 2020, while Ghana’s grew nearly eightfold, the bank said. Registrations accelerated after free AI coding assistants became available.
“Some early signals are encouraging, showing that African countries have become increasingly active in software development since the AI boom,” the report said. The bank said broader access could support a larger digital services sector, stronger regional collaboration and productivity gains in agriculture, education, health and finance. Those gains depend on access reaching beyond people and businesses already positioned to use the technology.
“Only a relatively well-off minority can reliably access and afford the technologies through which it is delivered,” the bank warned. Mobile internet in Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least affordable in the world relative to income. A basic data package costs about twice the United Nations’ affordability target of 2% of average monthly income, and an entry-level internet-enabled handset costs the poorest fifth of the population the equivalent of about three-quarters of a month’s income.
Reliable electricity is another gatekeeper. “Mobile phone ownership alone doesn’t provide meaningful digital access without reliable electricity,” the report said. Across 19 African countries with data on phone ownership and electricity-grid connections, 12% of households in the poorest income quintile had both, compared with 54% of households in the richest quintile.
Who Gets the Gains
In many African countries, fewer than 10% of adults in the poorest quintile are online, compared with more than 60% or 70% in the richest quintiles in better-connected economies. The report warned that AI’s productivity gains could concentrate among people and businesses already better positioned to use it, leaving farmers, informal businesses, schools, clinics and underserved communities excluded.
“Consequently, the immediate risk for most African economies isn’t mass displacement of poor workers by AI, but rather that the productivity gains from AI accrue almost entirely to highly educated workers, formal firms, and richer urban households,” the bank said. The report added that the divide is between countries able to spread AI’s benefits widely and those where adoption remains “an enclave phenomenon.”
The World Bank called for investment in connectivity, electricity, digital skills and computing capacity, saying African countries need to move from connecting markets to connecting poor people and places. The report names no grassroots or mutual-aid response; its proposed route runs through government investment and expanded infrastructure. “If African countries make that transition, AI can become a platform for broad-based productivity growth and poverty reduction. If they don’t, it will amplify the advantages of those already connected,” the bank said.