The World Bank has raised its forecast for Africa’s 2026 economic growth to 4.3%, while warning that poor households risk exclusion from artificial intelligence technologies that could expand productivity and jobs. Per capita income growth should reach 1.8% this year, but it still trails broader economic growth across much of the continent.
In its Africa Economic Update report on Tuesday, the bank urged governments to invest in AI. The region’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2025, and the new forecast exceeds the 4.1% growth the bank expected in April. Still, growth hasn’t yet made a dent in poverty.
Growth and debt costs
“The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities,” said Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa. He pointed to stronger performance across the region, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries. Zambia, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Angola received upgraded forecasts, which the bank linked to years of economic reforms and improving economic management.
The region has also weathered higher energy prices tied to the Iran war’s impact on supply chains. The bank listed a prolonged Middle East conflict, the El Niño weather phenomenon, high interest rates in advanced economies and elevated debt-servicing costs as risks to growth.
National debt loads have stabilized, and the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at about 57%. Yet about half of African countries are either in default or struggling to service their debts; debt-servicing costs remain persistently high, the bank said.
Dabalen urged governments to focus on AI investment, citing massive investment in countries such as the United States that lifts global growth. Africa lacks the infrastructure and capital to compete with larger economies in AI development, the bank said. But practical, low-cost applications on affordable devices could support student learning, help farmers detect and manage livestock diseases, and automate small-business accounting.
Who can access the technology
The World Bank’s October 2026 report said Nigeria’s GitHub developer base expanded tenfold since 2020, while Ghana’s grew nearly eightfold. Registrations accelerated after free AI coding assistants became available. “Some early signals are encouraging, showing that African countries have become increasingly active in software development since the AI boom,” the report said.
The bank said broader access could support a larger digital services sector, stronger regional collaboration and productivity gains in agriculture, education, health and finance. But “only a relatively well-off minority can reliably access and afford the technologies through which it is delivered,” it warned.
Mobile internet in Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least affordable in the world relative to income. A basic data package costs about twice the United Nations’ affordability target of 2% of average monthly income. For the poorest fifth of the population, an entry-level internet-enabled handset costs the equivalent of about three-quarters of a month’s income.
Electricity access widens the gap. Across 19 African countries with data on phone ownership and electricity-grid connections, 12% of households in the poorest income quintile had both, compared with 54% in the richest quintile. In many African countries, fewer than 10% of adults in the poorest quintile are online, compared with more than 60% or 70% in the richest quintiles in better-connected economies.
Where productivity gains may accrue
AI gains could concentrate among people and businesses already positioned to use the technology, leaving farmers, informal businesses, schools, clinics and underserved communities excluded, the bank said. “The immediate risk for most African economies isn’t mass displacement of poor workers by AI, but rather that the productivity gains from AI accrue almost entirely to highly educated workers, formal firms, and richer urban households,” it said.
The report said African countries need investment in connectivity, electricity, digital skills and computing capacity to connect poor people and places, not only markets. “If African countries make that transition, AI can become a platform for broad-based productivity growth and poverty reduction. If they don’t, it will amplify the advantages of those already connected,” the bank said.