The World Bank raised its forecast for Africa’s 2026 economic growth to 4.3% from 4.1%, while urging governments to invest in artificial intelligence despite severe gaps in internet affordability, electricity access and household connectivity. Its October 2026 Africa Economic Update said AI could support productivity and poverty reduction, but warned that people and businesses already able to use the technology may capture most of the gains.
Growth and the policy push
The region’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2025. Stronger performance across the region prompted the World Bank to revise its forecast, with Zambia, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Angola among the countries receiving upgraded projections. The bank attributed those upgrades to years of economic reforms and improving economic management.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said, “Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region.” He urged governments to invest in AI, citing large investments in countries such as the United States that lift global growth.
Public finances remain under pressure. Regional debt loads have stabilized, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at about 57%, but about half of African countries are either in default or struggling to service their debts. Dabalen cited a prolonged Middle East conflict, the El Niño weather phenomenon, high interest rates in advanced economies and elevated debt-servicing costs as risks. Debt-servicing costs remain persistently high, the report said.
Who can access the technology
Economic growth hasn’t yet made a dent in poverty, the World Bank warned. Per capita income growth is expected to reach 1.8% this year, up from 1.6% last year, still trailing broader economic growth across much of the continent. “The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities,” Dabalen said.
Africa lacks the infrastructure and capital to compete with larger economies in AI development, the bank said. But it can use practical, low-cost applications on affordable devices. These include tools that support student learning, help farmers detect and manage livestock diseases, and automate small-business accounting. Shared data centres and stronger data-protection laws could speed adoption.
Nigeria’s GitHub developer base has expanded tenfold since 2020, while Ghana’s grew nearly eightfold, the report said. Registrations accelerated after free AI coding assistants became available. The bank described these figures as early signs of increased software development activity since the AI boom.
A divide within countries
Access remains concentrated among better-off households, the World Bank warned. Mobile internet in Sub-Saharan Africa is the least affordable in the world relative to income, the report said. A basic data package costs about twice the United Nations’ affordability target of 2% of average monthly income. For the poorest fifth of the population, an entry-level internet-enabled handset costs the equivalent of about three-quarters of a month’s income.
Electricity access separates households, too. Across 19 African countries with data on phone ownership and electricity-grid connections, 12% of households in the poorest income quintile had both, compared with 54% in the richest quintile. In many African countries, fewer than 10% of adults in the poorest quintile are online, compared with more than 60% or 70% in better-connected economies.
The bank warned that AI gains could accrue “almost entirely to highly educated workers, formal firms, and richer urban households,” leaving farmers, informal businesses, schools, clinics and underserved communities excluded. It called for investment in connectivity, electricity, digital skills and computing capacity, shifting from connecting markets to connecting poor people and places. “If African countries make that transition, AI can become a platform for broad-based productivity growth and poverty reduction. If they don’t, it will amplify the advantages of those already connected,” the bank said.