The World Bank kept Jordan’s growth forecast at 2.7 per cent for 2026 and 2.9 per cent for 2027. Its October 2026 update, meanwhile, expects the wider MENAAP region to contract by 2.1 per cent in 2026. The figures place national economic plans within a regional outlook shaped by war and disruption to energy and trade markets. For households and businesses, the report traces the war’s effects on oil-importing economies through higher energy, food, shipping and insurance costs.
The forecast and its costs
Jordan’s projected growth eases from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025 to 2.7 per cent in 2026, then climbs to 2.9 per cent in 2027. The bank cut its 2026 projection by 0.1 percentage points from its January estimate and raised its 2027 forecast by the same margin. Its April estimates, however, remain unchanged.
The wider regional outlook is much sharper. MENAAP is expected to shift from 3.3 per cent growth in 2025 to a 2.1 per cent contraction in 2026. Oil-importing economies, including Jordan, are projected to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in 2025. These categories make the forecast easier to read, but they also place very different economies in one regional accounting frame.
The report links Jordan’s slight slowdown to falling tourism revenues and higher energy import costs. Strong domestic economic activity and trade through Aqaba offset some of the pressure. Growth could pick up moderately in 2027 if regional trade and transit conditions improve. The report also says strong domestic demand in several countries has softened some of the war’s impact.
Jordan’s GDP per capita growth is projected at 1.8 per cent in 2025, 2 per cent in 2026 and 2.1 per cent in 2027. Inflation is forecast at 2.5 per cent in 2026, easing to 2.3 per cent in 2027, compared with 1.8 per cent in 2025. These figures are projections. They don’t show how costs fall across different households.
Deficits, tourism and the tech bet
The fiscal deficit is forecast to narrow from 5 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. The current account deficit is expected to reach 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2026, then fall to 5.9 per cent in 2027, compared with 5.6 per cent in 2025. The report’s balance-sheet language tracks deficits and growth, but its supplied figures offer no detail on who bears the pressure behind them.
Flight arrivals in cities outside the Gulf region, including Amman, had returned to or exceeded pre-conflict levels by late August, the report said. That recovery sits beside the bank’s account of falling tourism revenues in Jordan. A headline measure and the conditions behind it aren’t the same thing.
The World Bank also describes Jordan as consolidating its position as a regional technology hub. It says the country already uses artificial intelligence in education and health to support learning and provide preventive screening and diagnostics in remote areas. The report counts 113 Jordanian firms active in the AI technology market as of July 2026; Jordan’s strategy aims to increase the number of AI researchers by 30 per cent.
The strategy also targets research and development, business-environment reform, capacity building and wider public-sector applications, while addressing constraints in capital and market size. The World Bank says Jordan performs relatively well in innovation and economic integration despite gaps in digital infrastructure, and classifies its GovTech maturity as above the average for lower-middle-income economies. Those are the report’s benchmarks. The update describes plans and projections, not proof that gains or costs will be shared evenly.