The World Bank has held firm on its economic forecasts for Jordan despite the fallout from war, regional instability, and disrupted energy and trade markets across the Middle East. The bank projects Jordan’s economy will grow 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027—modest gains in a region increasingly fractured by conflict.
The October 2026 MENAAP Economic Update underscores a stark divide. The broader Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region is forecast to contract by 2.1 percent in 2026, while oil-importing economies like Jordan show greater resilience than their oil-exporting neighbors. Growth for that group is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 3.9 percent in 2025. Jordan’s relative stability matters in a region where economic collapse can fuel further instability.
But the numbers mask real pressures on ordinary Jordanians. The World Bank attributed Jordan’s slight projected growth slowdown in 2026 to falling tourism revenues and higher energy import costs—twin blows that hit households directly. Higher costs for energy, food, shipping, and insurance put pressure on inflation and strain external accounts for households already managing tight budgets.
The Human Cost of Regional Conflict
Jordan isn’t just an economy; it’s a country hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees and Palestinian refugees from earlier decades of displacement in the region. Economic slowdowns here aren’t abstractions. They mean fewer jobs, higher prices for essentials, and less government capacity to provide services to vulnerable populations already living on the margins.
GDP per capita growth is projected to rise from 1.8 percent in 2025 to 2 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027. Inflation is forecast at 2.5 percent in 2026, easing to 2.3 percent in 2027, compared with 1.8 percent in 2025. The fiscal deficit is forecast to narrow from 5 percent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. The current account deficit is expected to be 7.3 percent of GDP in 2026 and 5.9 percent in 2027, compared with 5.6 percent in 2025. These deficits constrain government spending on healthcare, education, and social protection.
A Glimmer of Recovery
One bright spot: flight arrivals in cities outside the Gulf region, including Amman, had returned to or exceeded pre-conflict levels by late August. Tourism is beginning to recover. That could ease some pressure.
The World Bank also noted that domestic economic activity and trade through Aqaba have helped offset some pressures. Growth is expected to pick up moderately in 2027 as regional trade and transit conditions improve. That conditional hope—“as conditions improve”—reflects the vulnerability of any economy dependent on stability beyond its borders.
Technology as a Buffer
Jordan is working to diversify its economic base and reduce that vulnerability. The country is consolidating its position as a regional technology hub and already uses artificial intelligence in education and health to support learning and provide preventive screening and diagnostics in remote areas. This matters because it’s one area where Jordan can build domestic capacity independent of regional turmoil.
The World Bank said Jordan performs relatively well in innovation and economic integration despite gaps in digital infrastructure. It classified Jordan among lower-middle-income economies with GovTech maturity above their income-group average. The report cited data showing 113 Jordanian firms were active in the AI technology market as of July 2026. Jordan’s strategy aims to increase the number of AI researchers by 30 percent.
The country is focusing on research and development, business-environment reform, capacity building, and wider public-sector applications to address constraints in capital and market size. This is practical work: building skills, improving government systems, and attracting tech investment could create jobs and reduce dependence on tourism and regional trade. But these sectors take time, capital, and stable conditions to build.
Why This Matters:
Jordan’s relative economic stability matters far beyond its borders. It’s a crucial ally for the United States, a transit hub for regional commerce, and a home to hundreds of thousands of refugees from conflicts it didn’t cause. When oil-importing economies in the Middle East show resilience while the region contracts, it suggests some countries can weather regional instability through diversification and sound policy—but only if that instability doesn’t overwhelm them. The World Bank’s forecast assumes regional conflict doesn’t escalate further and trade disruptions don’t worsen. That’s a precarious assumption. For Jordanians already managing higher prices and slower growth, the margin between forecast and crisis is narrower than these percentages suggest. The country’s future depends on whether the region can stabilize enough for tourism to fully recover and trade to flow reliably—conditions entirely outside Jordan’s control.