The World Bank kept Jordan’s growth forecast at 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent in 2027, citing falling tourism revenues and higher energy import costs as pressures on the economy. Robust domestic activity and trade through Aqaba have helped offset some of those pressures, according to the bank’s October 2026 MENAAP Economic Update.
The bank’s 2026 projection sits 0.1 percentage points below its January estimate, while the 2027 forecast is 0.1 points higher. It estimated Jordan’s growth at 2.8 per cent in 2025. The forecasts, unchanged since April, come amid the fallout from war, regional developments and disruption to energy and trade markets.
Growth and regional pressures
The World Bank expects the broader Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region to contract by 2.1 per cent in 2026, after expanding 3.3 per cent in 2025. Oil-importing economies, including Jordan, have shown greater resilience than oil exporters. Growth among oil importers is expected to reach 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in 2025.
The report said the war affects oil-importing countries mainly through higher energy, food, shipping and insurance costs. Those expenses pressure external accounts and inflation. Strong domestic demand in several countries has mitigated some of the impact, the bank said.
Jordan’s growth should pick up moderately in 2027 as regional trade and transit conditions improve. Flight arrivals in cities outside the Gulf region, including Amman, had returned to or exceeded pre-conflict levels by late August, the report said.
Economic indicators
Jordan’s GDP per capita growth is projected to rise from 1.8 per cent in 2025 to 2 per cent in 2026 and 2.1 per cent in 2027. The bank forecasts inflation of 2.5 per cent in 2026, easing to 2.3 per cent in 2027, compared with 1.8 per cent in 2025.
The fiscal deficit should narrow from 5 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. The current account deficit is forecast at 7.3 per cent of GDP in 2026 and 5.9 per cent in 2027, after 5.6 per cent in 2025.
Artificial intelligence and public services
Jordan performs relatively well in innovation and economic integration, the World Bank said, though gaps remain in digital infrastructure. It classified the country among lower-middle-income economies with GovTech maturity above the average for that income group.
Jordan is consolidating its position as a regional technology hub, the report said. The country already uses artificial intelligence in education and health to support learning and provide preventive screening and diagnostics in remote areas.
The report said Jordan is focusing on research and development, business-environment reform, capacity building and wider public-sector applications to address constraints in capital and market size. Data cited in the report counted 113 Jordanian firms active in the AI technology market as of July 2026. Jordan’s strategy aims to increase the number of AI researchers by 30 per cent. Al Mamlaka public news service cited the report.