Three Leaders Weigh Summit as Ukraine Is Left Out

China has confirmed it is discussing a possible meeting among Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, while no plans have been finalized. Any gathering would put three national leaders at the center of negotiations, with Ukraine absent from the table as Putin seeks to discuss the war there.

A summit shaped at the top

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said at a press briefing in Beijing this week that China “is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state.” The proposed meeting could take place this month on the sidelines of a regional summit in Shenzhen. No public decision has settled its format or agenda.

Beijing is hosting this year's leaders summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, a 21-member grouping that includes the U.S. and Russia. Trump is expected to travel to Shenzhen to meet Xi for the third time this year. The two countries maintain a fragile trade truce that is set to expire in January, leaving the leaders’ possible encounter alongside an unresolved economic arrangement.

On Friday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke by video with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Greer urged Beijing to take “concrete actions to fully implement its past commitments, particularly as they relate to agricultural purchases, rare earths, and other critical minerals,” according to a statement from Greer's office. The exchange puts trade commitments and resources on the agenda of officials acting for their governments; the statement describes what Washington wants from Beijing, not an agreement reached by the two sides.

Trump has said he would be interested in meeting Xi and Putin in China to discuss nuclear arms controls. Putin, meanwhile, is focused on discussing the war in Ukraine without Kyiv at the table. Decisions about whether and how the leaders meet are still being discussed among their governments; the base report identifies no role for Ukrainians in the proposed talks about their country's war.

The image and the agenda

Experts said the leaders are unlikely to discuss substantive issues because their interests differ, and that the meeting could be staged mainly for a photograph. “I think it will happen. The question is the format and the content,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “China wants the image but not the costs.”

Danny Russel, a former senior State Department official who served in former President Barack Obama's administration, said Putin has the most to gain from a leaders' trilateral and that Russia is clearly pushing for a meeting that would be a diplomatic coup. Russel, now a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Trump, with his “crush on authoritarian strongmen,” would welcome it, though advisers had clearly warned him to avoid Ukraine as a topic.

Sun said Russia would likely use the summit to nudge China and the U.S. toward Moscow's positions on Ukraine, while “China will have to manage Russian manipulation.” She said China would not engage in arms-control talks or discussions about Ukraine or Iran, beyond repeating its diplomatic position that peace is important and wars should end. The prospective meeting therefore carries competing aims, not a settled shared program.

A photograph without a settlement

Sun said Beijing's biggest challenge may be public perception: the summit “should not be equated to three great powers dividing up the world.” Her warning concerns the image of three powerful governments meeting, an image that could suggest a division of influence even if the leaders make no such agreement.

Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the meeting could amount to a photo opportunity allowing Putin to be seen beside U.S. and Chinese leaders. “But these photo opportunities have diminishing diplomatic returns,” Singleton said. “The spectacle may be historic without producing anything particularly consequential.” The proposed gathering remains unfinished business among the leaders and their officials; its most visible result may be the picture, while Ukraine's absence and the competing agendas remain.