YPF, Argentina's majority state-owned oil company, announced on Friday 30 October 2026 that it had applied to put a US$8.729 billion shale oil project in Vaca Muerta under the RIGI incentive regime. The project, called Bajo del Toro, expects to export about US$25 billion of oil and gas between 2027 and 2055. It promises about 2,900 direct jobs. The company is a state company asking the state for incentives, run through the Economy Ministry, to help it pump oil for export.
Who Has the Power
RIGI is the Large Investment Incentive Regime, a scheme that works like this: a company applies, the government evaluates the application, and approval decides which benefits the project receives. The Economy Ministry says the regime "impulsa el desarrollo económico del país y atrae inversiones nacionales y extranjeras." Its RIGI page doesn't even set out the benefits. The terms depend on the evaluation, and the government hasn't said when it will rule or whether it will approve the filing as filed.
This is the first of three filings. Together they involve US$44 billion of gross investment over 16 to 26 years. Horacio Marín, YPF's president and chief executive, told investors the company is working on three projects across five blocks in the north of Vaca Muerta. Marín called it "el mayor plan de inversión upstream presentado en el país hasta ahora." The partners named include Shell, Pluspetrol, Chevron and Vista, and Chevron of the United States is among them. Argentine territory, carved into blocks, split among corporate shareholders.
The plan calls for 440 wells at Bajo del Toro alone. Across the three projects, about 2,190 wells. YPF holds 65% of the Bajo del Toro blocks and Vista Energy holds 35%. YPF didn't say how much of the US$8.729 billion it will fund itself or how its partners will contribute. The destination of the US$25 billion in planned exports, and the oil price assumed behind that figure, haven't been disclosed.
Who Gets Crushed
On the same investor call, an analyst asked about domestic fuel pricing. Marín answered: "La inflación en Argentina no me preocupa en absoluto." He added that "El precio de nuestro producto es de mercado libre, así que la inflación es otra cosa." Then came the part about the people at the pump. Marín described a price "buffer" used since the start of the Middle East conflict. YPF finances the gap when international crude rises, and when it falls, it keeps the gasoline price and recovers what it advanced. "Tenemos dos vicepresidentes que calculan todos los días cuánto le financiamos a la gente," Marín said. "Cuando el precio baje, vamos a mantener el precio de la nafta, y ahí vamos a cobrar lo que financiamos."
Read that again. When prices fall, drivers won't see relief. They'll pay back what the company calls a favor. Marín also admitted demand for gasoline and diesel, which he called "totalmente inelástica," started to behave elastically after increases. People cut back. "Entendimos que no podíamos aumentar más." The exception, he said, was the City of Buenos Aires, where demand held steady despite increases.
According to calculations by the consultancy 1816 based on Economy Ministry data, the gap between Brent crude and the local price of super gasoline hit a new record in the last week since the buffer began. Brent exceeded US$106 a barrel in the first weeks of October. Fuel sales rose 1.96% year over year in September, the first positive result since January, driven almost entirely by diesel. Super gasoline, about 41% of the market, fell 2.17% from September 2025. YPF led sales with 778,795 cubic metres, up 2.91%.
What They're Calling "Growth"
The filing came a day after the third-quarter investor call. YPF reported adjusted EBITDA of US$2.503 billion on revenue of US$6.557 billion, free cash flow of US$901 million, and a quarterly profit of about US$1.2 billion. Liquidity closed the quarter at US$3.654 billion, the company's record high. Net debt fell to 0.81 times EBITDA, the lowest in more than a decade, by the company's own telling.
A company posting the third-highest quarterly result in its history is lining up for incentives. Marín's plan, which he named 4x4, seeks to quadruple the company's value in four years with Vaca Muerta at its centre. Argentina's crude output hit a record 973,700 barrels a day in September, with Vaca Muerta supplying 698,500, or 71.7%. Marín gave no 2027 figures. "Van a estar muy sorprendidos con la producción de Vaca Muerta de YPF en diciembre de 2027," he said three times.
The terms of any approval, and the dates for the other two filings beyond "the short term," aren't public. YPF trades in New York under the ticker YPF, Vista as VIST. Investors know the numbers. The people filling their tanks get the buffer.
- ypf
- vaca muerta
- rigi
- bajo del toro
- shale oil
- argentina
- vista energy
- horacio marín