Around 8 million people in Zambia began casting ballots Thursday in a presidential election that will decide whether Hakainde Hichilema’s economic reforms can survive the anger of people crushed by the cost of living. The one-day vote also covers Parliament and local government councilors, with results expected on Monday, according to the electoral commission. The machinery of democracy is moving, but the pressure underneath it is plain enough: unemployment, food prices and an unstable electricity supply are still grinding down households while the political class asks for another mandate.
Who Pays for the Reforms
Before dawn, voters in Lusaka stood in long lines outside polling stations, bundled in thick jackets against the morning chill. Some huddled around small makeshift fires to keep warm while election officials arranged ballot boxes, checked voter lists and prepared polling stations. European Union election observers watched one polling station in the capital. The scene had all the ritual of orderly participation, but the people waiting in the cold were the ones carrying the burden of a system that keeps promising improvement later.
Mathias Ngoma, in his 70s, said he has voted in every election he could because “it’s the only voice I have.” He said, “I braved the cold to choose leaders I am hoping will make things better in our constituency,” and urged other Zambians to cast their ballots, saying every vote counts. Joseph, who only gave his first name, told The Associated Press he voted hoping for better economic management after becoming disillusioned with the current government. “I voted for development and change,” the 53-year-old said. “Change in the management of the economy ... (and) natural resources.” Those are the voices at the bottom, speaking in the only channel the state recognizes.
The Economy Under the Bosses
Hichilema faces 13 other candidates, with Brian Mundubile of an opposition alliance expected to be his strongest challenger. The election is widely seen as a referendum on Hichilema’s handling of the economy. He came into power in 2021 and is seeking a second term. He argues that he inherited an economy in crisis and has overseen the restructuring of Zambia’s massive foreign debt, presided over economic growth, and helped to court investors. He says he needs another five years to create jobs, improve infrastructure and expand public services.
Many Zambians say they don’t feel those gains. Unemployment, food prices and an unstable electricity supply continue to strain household budgets. That gap between official claims and daily life is the whole story in miniature: growth for investors, debt restructuring for creditors, and the rest of the country left to make do.
The election is also being watched abroad because Zambia is a major copper producer seeking to sharply increase production of the metal, which is critical to electric vehicles, renewable energy and power grids. China is Zambia’s largest foreign investor and has extensive mining interests in the country, while the United States has sought a greater role as Washington looks to diversify supplies of critical minerals and reduce its reliance on China. Hichilema has courted investment from both China and Western partners, including the U.S., as he seeks to increase annual copper production to 3 million metric tons by 2031. The copper beneath Zambian soil is treated like a prize in a global contest, while ordinary people are told to wait for the benefits to trickle down.
Order, Surveillance and the State
Security and political tensions rose in the final days of the campaign. Police deployed additional officers and warned against violence, disruptions at polling stations and the circulation of false results. Opposition parties have accused Hichilema’s government of using state institutions to target political rivals, allegations the government rejects. The opposition’s Tonse Alliance said a law enforcement raid on its offices days before the election was politically motivated. That’s the apparatus at work: police on the streets, institutions under suspicion, and rival camps accusing each other while the people are told this is normal democratic competition.
Hichilema spent four months in jail on treason charges when he was an opposition leader under former President Edgar Lungu, whom he defeated in 2021. Lungu remained an influential political figure until his death in South Africa last year. A prolonged dispute between his family and the government over his funeral and burial added to tensions ahead of the election. Even death didn’t escape the reach of political control.
A presidential candidate must win more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Zambia has long been regarded as one of southern Africa’s more stable democracies, with a history of largely peaceful transfers of power. Hichilema’s victory in 2021 marked the country’s third transfer of power to an opposition candidate since multiparty democracy was restored in 1991. Polls are expected to close at 1600 GMT. The ballot box remains the approved stage, but the cold queues, the debt, the foreign investors and the police deployment all tell a harsher truth about who gets to shape the country and who just has to live with the results.