A Russian ballistic missile hit Kyiv's CHP-4 power plant on Tuesday evening. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says it landed without early warning from Ukraine's partners. Ukraine depends heavily on Western intelligence, especially from the US, to spot incoming Russian attacks and identify its own targets. When that warning doesn't come, people beneath the missile learn just how much of their safety rests in other capitals' hands.
Winter is close. The strike hit a power plant. Zelenskyy is due in London on Wednesday for talks with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, in the fifth year of the conflict that began in February 2022.
Pledges From the Podium
Burnham's office says the U.K. government will provide "urgent support" for Kyiv in the coming weeks and speed up delivery of air defense missiles Ukraine needs before winter sets in. Before the visit, Burnham said: "My message to the Ukrainian people could not be clearer, we are with you for as long as it takes, and we will go further and faster in our support to back your courageous fight for peace in Europe."
"As long as it takes" costs nothing to say. The missiles are what count, and they're promised for "the coming weeks." The plant took a hit on Tuesday.
Burnham's first foreign trip after becoming leader in July took him to Kyiv about three months ago. There, he offered to share technology for making long-range missiles. Russia responded by accusing Britain of taking part in the war on Kyiv's side. Both capitals now trade escalation and accusation, while those living under the bombardment get no say and no shelter.
Washington Swings, Europe Scrambles
U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to import tons of Russian diesel. The decision came amid international efforts to sanction Russia's economy and isolate Putin. It added to a growing list of times Trump has sided with the Russian leader while cold-shouldering Zelenskyy.
One man's surprise announcements, it turns out, underpin the whole security arrangement. Ukrainian and Western European leaders were rattled again—not for the first time since the war began. Whether a city gets warning of an incoming missile depends on diplomacy between governments, and nobody in Kyiv's apartment blocks got asked about it.
Rym Momtaz of Carnegie Europe wrote in an assessment Tuesday: "Ahead of a tough winter for Ukraine, Donald Trump's swing back toward Russia bodes ill. But instead of panicking, Kyiv's European allies are focusing on action." Analysts noted that Trump's move girded Europe into standing firm behind Kyiv.
Sanctions, Ceasefires and Paper
Britain, like the European Union, is also looking to impose more sanctions on Russia. London has called on Moscow to observe a partial ceasefire announced by Trump and halt strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities. Zelenskyy says Ukraine is observing the energy ceasefire.
The partial ceasefire covers energy facilities; a ballistic missile hit a power plant in the capital on Tuesday evening. Ministries draft sanctions, podiums announce ceasefires, and the plant still takes a hit.
The pattern is plain in the basic facts. Washington cuts a diesel deal with Moscow. London and Brussels answer with more sanctions and faster missile deliveries. Each government sells its move as resolve. People in Kyiv are left waiting on intelligence they don't control, which states deliver or withhold, ahead of a winter those same states have promised to help them survive.