War and Hormuz Disruption Squeeze African Food Security

African countries face higher fuel and fertiliser costs tied to the US-Israel war on Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, putting food prices and availability at risk. Rural communities and agriculture-dependent countries face decisions and conflict far beyond their control.

Costs reaching the fields

In Zimbabwe, more than 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture, so rising fuel and fertiliser prices pose a critical concern, Monica Mutsvangwa, the country's minister of women affairs, community, small and medium enterprise development, said. The pressure is direct: when fertiliser costs climb, some countries cut its use, potentially affecting harvests and food supplies.

Luz Maria de la Mora, director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), said the Hormuz crisis needed resolving "sooner rather than later" to make fertiliser affordable for rural communities. "Prices of fertilisers have risen dramatically ... so many countries have decided to reduce the use of fertilisers, which will have an effect next year in terms of crops," she said. "It may have an effect on availability of food and prices of food."

The war has laid bare the waterway's importance. One-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade previously passed through the Strait of Hormuz. De la Mora said rising oil prices had disrupted supply chains, and that "the effects are lasting longer than we would have expected or would have wanted."

Uganda's fuel prices had more than doubled, according to Sanjay Tanna, the country's minister of trade, industry and cooperatives. Subsistence farming and domestic food production have helped cushion Uganda from international market volatility, he said. But the country also faces financial pressure: its currency had lost 10 percent of its value against the US dollar, while the Ugandan shilling had steadily declined since mid-2026.

Investment plans, unequal terms

At Doha's UNCTAD World Investment Forum on October 25 and 26, heads of state, policymakers, CEOs and investors discussed global investment and sustainable development. The focus on investment came alongside a stark imbalance described by de la Mora: foreign investment clusters in a relatively small number of countries. She called that concentration "very understandable," saying investors need confidence their money will produce returns.

"Capital is risk averse. Capital needs to have certainty that its investment is going to yield returns and it's going to come to fruition," de la Mora said. Governments, she said, can build investor confidence with transparent institutions, the rule of law and investment in infrastructure, including reliable electricity, energy supplies and digital connectivity.

Tanna didn't dress unequal trade up as a promise of equality. Asked whether the international trading system treats all countries equally, he said: "Of course not. The world cannot be equal ... It's unfair, but we believe that, within the space that we are in, we are in a good space." Uganda's own food production, he said, gives the country an advantage when international supply chains come under pressure.

Mutsvangwa said Harare saw itself as a potential investment partner to either side in the trade war between the United States and China. "We are a friend to all and an enemy to none," she said. "Money has no color ... If we get an investor who comes into our country, follows the rules and regulations of the country, makes his money, and Zimbabwe develops, that's what we want." She pointed to Zimbabwe's deposits of more than 60 critical minerals, including lithium and graphite, and its tourism potential.

Jean-Jacques Bouya, the Republic of Congo's Deputy Prime Minister for Coordination, Development Infrastructure and Land Planning, said the country's Vision 2063 national development plan aligned with the African Union's broader development ambitions. Connectivity through electricity, digital infrastructure and physical links sits at the heart of the strategy, he said, alongside plans to expand local processing so more value from natural resources stays in the country. "Africa can no longer be a reservoir of raw materials, and neither can Congo – a place where raw materials are extracted, taken elsewhere, processed and then sold back to us at a much higher price. We cannot go on like this," Bouya said.