Washington Uses Trade Access to Discipline South Africa

The United States has notified Congress and South Africa that it intends to end South Africa’s benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on January 1, 2027, putting exporters and workers in the path of a decision made in Washington. President Donald Trump gave notice on Monday, November 2; the notice allows 60 days before the proposed removal takes effect. Rwanda has also been notified that its AGOA benefits will end on January 1, 2027.

AGOA gives eligible African countries duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products. South African carmakers, farmers and manufacturers have used the programme. The proposed withdrawal doesn’t ban South African goods from the US, but it would remove preferential treatment from qualifying products and expose them to applicable tariffs and other duties.

Who Controls the Terms

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said an annual review found that South Africa and Rwanda had engaged in practices inconsistent with AGOA eligibility requirements. Washington cited barriers to US trade and investment, corruption in South Africa, and what it described as threats to US national security and foreign policy interests. The US statement gave no detailed examples. Its summary also cited concerns about human rights, political pluralism and workers’ rights in Rwanda, which faced US sanctions over alleged support for M23 rebels in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

South Africa’s Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said Pretoria would keep trying to reach a solution. “This decision does not define the broader relationship between South Africa and the United States, however a solution depends on the willingness of both Parties to find solutions,” he said. The government said it had offered concessions that respected South Africa’s Constitution, World Trade Organisation rules and measures to protect local producers, consumers and animal health. Pretoria said Washington raised new concerns that weren’t part of trade talks begun in 2025. On November 2, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said the government had tabled additional concessions and regretted that the US was raising new issues.

The government says it’s assessing effects on businesses, exporters and workers, and working with companies to identify impacts on individual firms and workers. It also promised support to affected companies, a commitment described as vague in News24’s headline. The people whose jobs and livelihoods are exposed get an assessment and a promise; the terms of access remain in the hands of governments.

The Cost Lands Unevenly

AGOA’s share of South African exports to the US has already fallen. About 28% of those exports entered under AGOA in 2024, compared with about 10% in 2025. AGOA exports dropped from approximately $4 billion in 2024 to $1.7 billion in 2025, while around 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary World Trade Organisation terms in 2025. Tau said AGOA exports made up about 1% of South Africa’s total global exports.

National totals don’t erase the concentrated hit. Cosatu said it was deeply concerned about thousands of agricultural and manufacturing jobs linked to AGOA. Spokesperson Matthew Parks said: “We have already seen many jobs lost at factories and companies in Cape Town, Atlantis, Malmesbury and Tulbagh, amongst others. We have seen the devastation it threatens to these workers and farmers’ abilities to take care of their families.” Citrus farmers called the decision “a serious blow to the citrus industry.”

Gerrit van der Merwe, chairperson of the Citrus Growers Association (CGA), said job losses were likely, particularly in the Western and Northern Cape, where communities depend on South Africa–US trade. He pointed to Citrusdal, whose economy is directly tied to competitive US market access. “A citrus grower cannot simply divert his crop to another market – markets have different phytosanitary requirements and consumer tastes. Entire orchards have been planted specifically for the US market,” he said.

South African citrus would face the applicable US duty, generally 1.5 to 2.5 US cents per kilogram, plus the additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff, which applies to all citrus varieties except oranges. Exporters of mandarins, lemons and grapefruit would be “at a severe disadvantage to competitors like Peru and Chile, who benefit from trade agreements as well as shorter transit times.” CGA chief executive Boitshoko Ntshabele said South Africa’s removal would also hurt US consumers because South African citrus supplies the US market during its off-season.

Trade Ties, and Their Limits

Economists said the direct effect on the overall South African economy could be limited, while warning of risks to confidence, investment and the wider relationship. Johann Els, senior economist at PSG, said about 7% of South Africa’s goods exports went to the US in 2025, worth approximately $16.5 billion; about $1.6 billion entered under AGOA preferences. “While the absolute numbers may look significant, the share of our overall exports directly affected is relatively small,” Els said. “This does not mean that all South African exports to the US will suddenly face new tariffs or disappear. Exports will continue, but some products will become less competitive.” He said the larger concern was “the signal it sends to investors and the potential impact on confidence, investment and our broader relationship with the US.”

South Africa–US bilateral trade reached $28.8 billion in 2025. More than 600 American companies operate in South Africa and support approximately 134,600 jobs, and South Africa supplies 12 of the 50 minerals the US regards as critical. Tau said South Africa supplies about 70% of US isotopes used for purposes including cancer treatment. He described trade ties as complementary and mutually beneficial, and warned that losing AGOA could undermine South African investments in the US and existing value chains.

Washington’s ambassador, Brent Bozell, called the termination “predictable and preventable” and blamed South African government policies. He said he remained hopeful a way forward could be found if South Africa’s government understood “the gravity of the situation.” His statement followed the notice that could make some exports less competitive and threatens jobs in communities tied to those exports. Pretoria says it will continue talks; analysts and the government have also pointed to diversification through the African Continental Free Trade Area, India, the European Union and China. No grassroots mutual-aid effort is described in the account. For now, the responses on record are negotiations by officials, assessments by companies and the search for other markets.