NATO Allies Brace for Trump's Troop-Pullback Threat

Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that European allies are preparing for a worst-case scenario after the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026: President Donald Trump could intensify his attacks on the alliance, including by pulling thousands more U.S. troops out of Europe. They spoke anonymously about a sensitive question of military power: who gets to decide how many troops stay, and where.

Democrats were widely expected to win the House of Representatives and potentially flip the Senate. Trump's personal approval ratings had fallen to their lowest on record. Three diplomats said a Republican loss could push Trump to turn toward foreign affairs if Congress constrained him on domestic policy, using troop withdrawals to rally his MAGA base or cement his legacy. Those are forecasts, not decisions. But a review of U.S. forces in Europe is expected by December.

Troops, leverage and the alliance

One senior European defense official described the possible pattern this way: "Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy." Attacking NATO, the official said, "seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview." Another diplomat put it more bluntly: "He could be very pissed off. If so, he'll be very harsh."

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales offered a different account. "President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else," she told POLITICO, pointing to agreements by allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, bolster the U.S. military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia's all-out war in Ukraine. Wales said Trump "remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States" over the war in Iran. He would, she added, "continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad."

The recent backdrop includes a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a renewed rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. The report also said Russia had stepped up sabotage and so-called hybrid war across Europe. In that setting, the diplomats fear troop levels and military support could become bargaining tools.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, warned that Trump could tie the continued U.S. presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine. "There is a risk that all these things — the U.S. force posture review, Ukraine, European security order ... somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin," she said, "creating a very dangerous situation for security in Europe."

What the drawdown could mean

Diplomats said Trump could also cut U.S. contributions to NATO's common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, and deepen ties further with Russia. U.S. law sets a minimum of 76,000 troops in Europe, but Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank, questioned whether that floor would hold. "It is doubtful that at least the troop floors would stand up to legal scrutiny and in any case Trump has been very willing to ignore the courts," she said. She added that the administration had regularly ignored funding guidance from Congress.

Kavanagh said Europe would have "the most trouble" replacing electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling and some types of logistics if Trump ordered a broader drawdown. These are not abstract alliance numbers; they describe military capacities European governments may struggle to replace.

A major Republican defeat could also bring changes at the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had become deeply unpopular in Congress after refusing regular briefings to lawmakers about budgets and operations, particularly Democrats. There was speculation he could leave after an electoral blowout. A Democrat-led Congress could investigate his firing of dozens of generals and admirals without cause and the faltering war with Iran. Such hearings could constrain Hegseth and his team, while a Pentagon transition could delay troop-withdrawal decisions by weeks or months.

Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović was more skeptical that Trump would target NATO, saying: "We have had speculations all the time about Trump ... coming out of the NATO; this has not happened so far." He added, "Congress is the one making the decision, the final decision about less troops in Europe." A sixth NATO diplomat doubted that the president's choices could be reliably predicted: "I don't think we are there with the current POTUS." NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to POLITICO's requests for comment.