Argentina Stocks Slip as Peso and Risk Gauge Shift

Argentina’s MSCI Merval fell 0.3% to 97,942 points on Tuesday, Oct. 20, as country risk briefly reached 710 basis points before closing at 672. Argentine shares and bonds tracked the cost investors demand to hold the country’s dollar debt.

The 19-share MSCI Merval replaced the S&P Merval on Oct. 19 and entered its second session. Shares and bonds fell when country risk moved above 700, then recovered as the measure eased. Analyst Balanz described a strong intraday reversal across most assets. The cause of the morning spike wasn’t confirmed.

Risk Recedes, but Market Pressure Remains

Country risk reached 710 basis points at 10:15 a.m., its highest level since Oct. 24, 2025. It ended at 672, three points below Monday’s 675. Traders tested and rejected the 700-basis-point threshold that morning; a close above it would have marked the first such close since October 2025, according to the report.

The market board separately listed the S&P MERVAL at 3,017,221, unchanged, against a previous level of 3,022,485. The index reached a session high of 3,042,365 and a low of 2,991,150. Its listed 12-month gain was 30.51%.

Argentine depositary receipts on Wall Street finished mixed. Globant rose 3.8%, while Satellogic fell 5.4% and Loma Negra fell 2.5%. Grupo Financiero Galicia gained 1.05%, Banco Macro rose 0.70%, YPF added 0.16%, and Pampa Energía lost 2.05%. Banks and YPF held up, the report said, as Pampa Energía, Loma Negra and Satellogic declined.

Peso Rates and Central Bank Reserves

The wholesale peso rate rose 0.03% to ARS1,525 per U.S. dollar, its third straight increase. The blue-market rate, an informal street rate Argentines use to save, reached ARS1,570, up 0.6%, or ARS10. The board listed USD/ARS at 1,493, up 0.10%, with a previous level of 1,491, a high of 1,494 and a low of 1,480; its year-over-year rise was 12.96%.

The central bank bought US$103 million in the spot market, about 15.3% of the day’s supply, according to Infobae. International reserves rose US$49 million to US$50.201 billion. The figures track the central bank’s purchases and reserve balance; the report didn’t break down how currency moves affected households or workers.

Four of the 14 listed shares advanced. Utilities led, while Consumer Disc. lagged. YPF stood at 7,810, up 0.26%; GGAL at 6,980, down 0.78%; PAMPA at 5,115, up 0.69%; TXAR at 747.50, down 2.35%; and ALUAR at 938.00, down 1.21%. TGS fell 0.17%, CEPU rose 1.84%, MIRGOR fell 1.20%, COME fell 0.73%, LOMA NEGRA rose 0.08%, BYMA fell 1.70%, TELECOM ARG fell 0.70%, GLOBANT fell 2.26%, and MERCADOLIBRE fell 3.59%.

Economic Releases and Election Bets

Argentina’s Leading Indicator for September appeared on Tuesday’s schedule, but no published result was available. INDEC was due to publish August economic activity on Wednesday, Oct. 21. The report included no migration, demographic, or sovereignty-policy figures, and named no institution directing a transfer of national decision-making power.

Polymarket priced Javier Milei at 47.5%, Axel Kicillof at 32.5% and Sergio Massa at 11.6% to win the next presidential election. By 8:36 p.m. ET on Oct. 20, 2026, traders had wagered US$1.0 million. A separate market put the chance Milei would leave office before 2027 at 2.5%. These were bets, not polls, the report stressed, and it identified Kalshi as a US exchange regulated by the CFTC. It attributed market data to RT and session reports to Infobae and Ámbito, and named Matthias Camenzind as Editor-in-Chief.