AUKUS Deepens Australia’s Ties to Military Power

The USS Colorado docked at HMAS Stirling in Perth for what The Australian called the most advanced maintenance yet undertaken in Australia under AUKUS. The visit was presented as proof that “AUKUS has arrived.” It also puts the machinery of a US-led military agreement on Australian soil, while decisions about submarines, weapons and strategy remain with governments and defence institutions.

A Deal Built Around Military Power

Bryan Clark, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington DC and a former US Navy submarine commander, argues that autonomous systems could help preserve the submarine agreement as US forces face depleted weapons stocks and a strained fleet. The United States is at war with Iran, and Clark said the conflict has left its military less ready to confront China. A Reuters report cited in his analysis said US forces had expended between one-third and one-half of the sophisticated strike missiles they would use against Chinese forces. Other reports said they had expended nearly all of the high-end air-defence weapons needed to counter Beijing's rocket arsenal.

Clark said the US defence industry would reportedly need at least three years to replenish munitions used against Iran, with more time needed to expand stocks for a war against China. In the early 2030s, when Australia would receive its first submarines, US munitions could be back to pre-Iran levels but still fall short of what a war against China would require.

The pressure is visible across the fleet. The war extended deployments for half the US carrier fleet and a third of its destroyer force, adding to a maintenance backlog. The US submarine fleet has reached its smallest size in nearly 100 years amid slow construction and retirements of Reagan-era Los Angeles-class boats. The USS Boise was retired early so shipyards could focus on newer submarines.

Drones, Budgets and the Cost of Readiness

Clark said the Pentagon was shifting more than $US150bn ($212bn) in additional defence procurement away from manned, multimission ships and aircraft and toward larger numbers of unmanned systems. He said this could make the US military more willing to transfer nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS Pillar 1 and support Pillar 2 through investment in autonomous systems, hypersonic weapons and other technologies.

Start-ups including Castelion and Destinus are using commercial technology and production methods to build air-defence and hypersonic strike missiles quickly and at scale, Clark wrote. Lockheed Martin and MBDA are also pursuing lower-cost alternatives. Clark said the newer weapons aren't as sophisticated as the Pentagon's preferred systems, but could counter nearly all threats facing US forces.

The push for more ships has not stopped the fleet from shrinking. Clark said shipbuilding budgets didn't determine the fleet's size or shape: the Navy had fallen from nearly 600 to fewer than 300 combat ships, while inflation-adjusted support costs remained about the same as people, repairs and fuel became more expensive. The Trump administration requested more than $100bn ($143bn) in Navy ship-construction funding during the previous two years.

Congressional control may also shape the spending picture. Clark said US defence budgets were likely to flatten or fall starting in 2027 if the US Congress shifted all or partly to Democratic Party control, while US deficits and debt were rising. He said US defence and congressional leaders would still need to approve the submarine sale. The agreement's next steps therefore rest with the same institutions managing military budgets and procurement.

A Wider Military Network

Starting in 2027, the Submarine Rotational Force-West would operate one to five US and UK submarines from HMAS Stirling on a near-continuous basis. Clark said the arrangement would extend the presence, reach and readiness of a smaller US submarine fleet and provide Australia additional undersea forces to defend shipping lanes and northern approaches.

Air Marshal Glen Braz, the new Chief of the ADF's Joint Capabilities Group, said space and cyber technologies had become indispensable in military operations. He said personnel across the ADF, Australian industry and academia needed to contribute skills and innovation: “We need to build adaptability into our culture, our systems, our people and our command philosophy. And we need to get out of the way when people have good ideas to let them deliver and to embrace them and operationalise them quickly.”

Braz said Defence was working with government agencies, industry and national partners to build strategic depth and support operations. “We need to harness the nation's industrial, commercial and societal strengths to prevail if we do find ourselves in a dire situation,” he said. The plan draws on national capacity, but the operational decisions described in the article belong to Defence and its partners.

On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, Defence Minister Richard Marles said Australia hadn't taken steps to restrict Chinese electric vehicles at military bases, despite the US military ban on BYD cars at Kadena Air Base on Japan's Okinawa island. Marles said the United States hadn't asked Australia to take similar action. Australia is one of BYD's largest export markets, alongside Brazil and Britain, aided by relatively low trade barriers.

Stewart Dunne, a maritime and defence industry specialist and director of AusPac Hydrospatial, calls for “Assured Ocean Access”: enough freedom of movement for designated forces and missions despite disruption and risk. He argues that ships and weapons depend on hydrographic knowledge, sensors, networks, intelligence, trained people, logistics and decision-making. His proposed strategy broadens the military network; it doesn't place control of that network in the hands of the communities whose trade routes, energy supplies and infrastructure it is meant to protect.