Caretaker State Holds War Powers as Coalition Stalls

Israel’s caretaker government can still wage war, conduct diplomacy and make policy, even though the October 27 election left every bloc without a clear path to a Knesset majority. The Central Elections Committee said about 93% of ordinary ballots had been counted, while roughly 600,000 double-envelope votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, prisoners and others remained outstanding. The result could still change. Powers over people’s lives don’t stop while parties bargain.

With more than 85% of ballots counted on Wednesday, October 28, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The opposition bloc led by Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot was projected to take 48. Arab parties were on track for 19 seats, a historic high. A majority requires at least 61.

The caretaker government still holds the apparatus

Outgoing ministers stay in office during a period that could last 12 weeks. The caretaker government holds the same legal powers as a permanent one, but past High Court rulings demand greater restraint because it lacks a democratic mandate from the Knesset. Guy Lurie of the Israel Democracy Institute summed up the tension: “Though it has the legal authority to do anything any other government can do, a caretaker government's discretion is more narrow, and it has a duty of restraint.”

That distinction matters because Netanyahu has indicated he wants to resume the war with Iran. Israel’s political leaders are negotiating over who gets to direct the state, while the caretaker government retains authority over war and policy.

President Isaac Herzog urged parties to avoid another election and enter coalition talks with “an open mind.” Under the Basic Law: The Government, Herzog must consult the heads of all Knesset parties before choosing which candidate gets the first chance to form a government. The candidate gets 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. If that attempt fails, Herzog can give another candidate 28 days. If no government emerges through the process, new elections follow.

Herzog called high turnout a “badge of honor for Israeli society” and said it showed Israelis’ “desire for democracy.” But the immediate seat count makes Arab parties potential partners and swing voters, even as much of the opposition has campaigned against relying on them.

Arab votes, conditional partnership

Yair Golan, chairman of the Democrats, urged the opposition “change bloc” to reverse its election pledges and work with the Arab-led Joint List and Ra’am. “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120. Sixty-five is more than 55. That's how Israeli democracy works. Period,” he wrote on X. He also rejected Netanyahu’s division between Jewish and Arab votes: “We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes.”

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said, “We are ready and willing to pave the way for the Netanyahu government's removal.” He called the offer “Jewish-Arab partnership — real, equal partnership,” and said he would “leverage our political power to advance the values we believe in.” Jabareen said he would cooperate with an opposition-led government, but wouldn’t join a coalition under current political circumstances, citing the war in Gaza and settlements in the West Bank.

The opposition’s openness has limits. Eisenkot and most of his allies had resisted partnering with Arab lawmakers. Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett had pledged not to rely on Arab parties, though both had previously served in a short-lived government with Ra’am from 2021 to 2022. Netanyahu made an opposition alliance with Arab parties a campaign target, using the slogans “Either the Right or Palestine” and “It's the right, or Palestine.”

The vote doesn’t settle who governs

A new Knesset must take its oath within 14 days of the election. Until then, a Consensus Committee with one coalition member and one opposition member must agree before Knesset committees can meet to prepare legislation at the government’s request. After the new Knesset is sworn in, its committees can take shape and legislation can move forward before a government takes office.

Opposition parties, including the two Arab parties, were considering replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Likud member. A new speaker could give them control of the legislative agenda, including a possible state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre, which Netanyahu had blocked. Political scientist Gideon Rahat of Hebrew University of Jerusalem said: “Maybe everybody lost in these elections but the Arab parties. And for the Arab parties, it's unclear that they can make use of their huge success.”

Huda al-Houli, a displaced resident, told AFP: “Our fear is that these elections might result in the emergence of an even worse leader and those who are more violent and bloodthirsty.” The ballots are still being counted. The caretaker government still has the legal authority to act.