Western leaders are closely monitoring Belarus after Russia launched its largest missile attack of the year on Ukraine's capital, raising concerns that Minsk could enable Moscow to open a new northern front in the fourth year of the conflict that began Feb. 24, 2022.
Belarusian exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Kyiv on Monday as the Ukrainian capital assessed damage from Sunday's bombardment, which killed two people and wounded at least 91 others. The attack included Russia's powerful hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has boasted can travel up to 10 times the speed of sound and evade air defense systems.
Strategic Concerns and Diplomatic Pressure
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday about the war in Ukraine, marking their first call since the invasion began. According to a presidential aide in Macron's office, the French leader "underscored the risks for Belarus of allowing itself to be dragged into Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine." The call came after Russia and ally Belarus held joint nuclear drills last week, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Belarus could provide a launchpad for Russia to open a new front in northern Ukraine. Some Russian troops entered Ukraine from Belarusian territory in Moscow's invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
A terse readout from the Belarusian presidential press service said the call with Macron took place "on the French side's initiative" and the leaders discussed "regional issues" and Belarusian relations with the EU and France. Lukashenko, who has governed his country of some 9.5 million people with an iron fist for more than three decades, relies on the Kremlin for cheap energy, loans and other support.
Escalating Threats and Defense Challenges
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement Monday that further "systemic strikes" on Kyiv are in store. It urged foreign citizens, including members of diplomatic missions, to leave the city as quickly as possible and told residents to stay away from military and government facilities. The ministry said Friday's deadly Ukrainian drone strike on a college dormitory in Starobilsk was "the final straw." Ukraine said it hit only targets supporting Russia's invasion.
With U.S.-made air defense missiles in short supply because of the Iran war, Russian missiles are harder for Ukraine to stop. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence services had received tipoffs from the United States and European countries that Russia was preparing to launch an Oreshnik. Sunday's bombardment damaged buildings across the city, including near government offices, residential buildings, schools and a market. Shattered glass littered sidewalks on Monday.
International Response and Continued Attacks
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha led ambassadors from more than 70 countries on a visit to the sites of the strikes. He urged the international community to step up pressure on Moscow and ensure Ukraine gets more air defense assets. Sybiha, who appeared alongside Tsikhanouskaya, emphasized that "Ukraine consistently differentiates between the regime that has dragged Belarus into Russian aggression and the Belarusian people," adding that "we appreciate the contribution of Belarusian volunteers, journalists, human rights advocates and activists who are fighting for freedom, both ours and yours."
Tsikhanouskaya, on her first visit to Kyiv, told The Associated Press on Sunday that "Lukashenko's regime knows well what needs to be done to improve ties with the European Union, but it isn't happening. Instead, hybrid attacks, nuclear blackmail and threats to the entire region." Speaking after meeting with Ukrainian officials, she said that "Ukraine is defending not only its independence but also the right of our peoples to live without imperial dictatorship, without violence and fear."
The Russian army is locked in a hard and costly slog on the 1,250-kilometer (780-mile) front line that mostly snakes through eastern and southern Ukraine. "Russia hit a dead-end on the battlefield, so it terrorizes Ukraine with deliberate strikes on city centers," Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief, said on X.
Meanwhile, a Russian missile hit a business in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Derhachi on Monday, killing two people and wounding 19 others, Kharkiv regional administration head Oleh Syniehubov said. Seventeen people were hospitalized. Russia's Federal Security Service said divers found magnetic mines attached to the hull of a liquefied petroleum gas tanker in the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga. The tanker Arrhenius was bound for Samsun, Turkey, it said, adding that the limpet mines were made in a NATO member country. Ukrainian officials made no immediate comment.
Western countries have repeatedly slapped sanctions on Belarus, including for its crackdown on human rights and for allowing Moscow to use its territory to invade Ukraine. More recently, Lukashenko has been trying to improve ties with the West. Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Lukashenko has released hundreds of political prisoners as part of deals that lifted some U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to stop the fighting have stalled.
Why This Matters:
Belarus's potential deeper involvement in Russia's invasion poses significant security implications for NATO's eastern flank and could force Ukraine to divert scarce military resources to defend its northern border. The shortage of U.S.-made air defense systems, exacerbated by competing demands from the Iran conflict, leaves Ukrainian cities vulnerable to continued Russian bombardment, threatening civilian infrastructure and economic stability. Lukashenko's delicate balancing act between Moscow and the West reflects the limits of diplomatic pressure when authoritarian regimes depend on external support for survival. The stalled U.S. peace efforts and continued escalation underscore the challenge of achieving negotiated settlements when aggressor states face no decisive battlefield defeats. For Western policymakers, the question remains whether sanctions and diplomatic isolation can deter Minsk from providing Moscow additional strategic advantages without addressing Belarus's fundamental economic dependence on Russian subsidies.