Brazil’s Tight Runoff Puts State Power on the Ballot

Nearly 160 million Brazilians were eligible to vote Sunday in a presidential runoff governed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with voting compulsory for citizens aged 18 to 70. The choice was between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro; the close race also put security, social spending and Brazil’s relationship with the United States at stake.

The first round left Flávio Bolsonaro ahead with 47.03% of the vote to Lula’s 45.16%, a lead of more than 2.2 million votes. More than 33 million voters abstained. Infobae reported that 48.1 million electors had not backed either runoff candidate in the first round, including supporters of other candidates, blank or null voters, and people who did not vote. That’s a vast share of the electorate left outside the two choices now presented as decisive.

The machinery of the vote

Voting opened at 8 a.m. and closed at 5 p.m. Brasília time, with electronic ballots and results expected within hours or that night. Under the rules set out in Resolution No. 23.748 of the Superior Electoral Court, the candidate with more valid votes in the runoff wins; blank and null votes neither cancel the election nor go to either candidate. The TSE governs the process, and there’s no minimum margin required to claim victory.

The final polls showed a contest too close to settle the question in advance. Datafolha’s survey, released October 24, put Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 49% of valid votes, within a two-point margin of error. Futura Inteligência gave Flávio 50.1% and Lula 49.9%, within its 2.2-point margin of error. Infobae reported that five surveys released on the eve of the runoff showed differences of up to two points, all within their respective margins of error.

At Lula’s final rally in São Paulo, hundreds of thousands of supporters gathered along a major avenue, chanting, dancing and forming the letter L with their hands. He also drew thousands to Copacabana in Rio de Janeiro, where he said, “Vamos a ganar las elecciones” (“We are going to win the election”). Flávio Bolsonaro held his final rally in Rio de Janeiro and said Brazil “se cansó de esperar” with Lula and that “La gente está del lado del cambio” (“People are on the side of change”). The crowds could assemble; the decisions on spending, policing and the courts remained in the hands of the office they were trying to fill.

Security, wages and the cost of living

Flávio Bolsonaro made a tough-on-crime platform central to his campaign. He proposed maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offenses, and said leaders of criminal organizations could face sentences of up to 80 years. He promised a war on “narcoterrorism” from January if elected, saying criminals “van a estar presos o a ser neutralizados” (“will be imprisoned or neutralized”). Lula, meanwhile, faced voter concerns about security and living costs.

Lula’s government announced measures aimed at household budgets and workers. It increased Bolsa Família by 15%, benefiting nearly 50 million people, at an estimated cost of 5.8 billion reais for the rest of the year. The Senate approved a reduction in the working week from six days and 44 hours to five days and 40 hours without reducing wages. Flávio Bolsonaro supported the measure late in the campaign, while business leaders warned that higher labor costs could hurt small businesses, fuel inflation and expand informal employment.

Lula also backed debt relief for small businesses, low-interest public loans, tax incentives and a refinancing program intended to remove millions of lower-income Brazilians from delinquency records. His government estimated the loans and renegotiations would cost 3 billion reais over three years. It removed federal taxes on gasoline imports and sales for 30 days and subsidized diesel for importers, at an estimated cost of 5.2 billion reais. Lula sent Congress a proposal for free weekend public transportation; experts cited in the campaign estimated it could cost between 5 billion and 16 billion reais, depending on the model. These are proposed and funded measures within the existing state apparatus, not a transfer of decision-making power to the people who depend on them.

Washington, courts and the next president

Lula accused the Trump administration of seeking to influence the contest through its proximity to the Bolsonaro family; Washington denied meddling. Trump called Jair Bolsonaro’s case a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly linking the decision to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial. Many of those tariffs were later reduced, and Trump imposed new levies on Brazil in 2026, citing unfair trade practices. Lula described the tariffs and other punitive measures as bullying.

Flávio Bolsonaro emphasized his ties to the White House and said Brazil needed better deals with the Trump administration, including in rare minerals. Brazil estimates it has deposits of up to 21 million tons, second only to China. He denied receiving help from the U.S. government. The country’s markets and currency rose after his first-round lead amid expectations of pro-business reforms; the Liberal Party also won its largest-ever bloc in the Chamber of Deputies in October.

The next president is expected to appoint at least three of the Supreme Court’s 11 justices during the term because of upcoming retirements. Flávio Bolsonaro criticized the court and promised judicial reform. The campaigns also accused Meta of unequal treatment on its platforms, while Flávio filed a complaint with the TSE seeking to disqualify Lula over alleged irregularities on digital platforms. The sources did not report the final runoff result.