Copper Slump Holds Chile's Growth Near Zero

Chile’s monthly economic activity rose just 0.2% year over year in September, the Central Bank of Chile reported on Monday, Nov. 2, as a 12.1% fall in mining output dragged down the headline figure. Commerce and activity outside mining grew, but the country’s dependence on copper left the overall result close to flat.

A headline shaped by mining

The Imacec, the central bank’s monthly estimate of economic activity, offers an early indication of gross domestic product. Its September reading followed a 1.0% fall in August. Analysts had expected no change in September, while seasonally adjusted activity increased 1.9% from August.

Mining output fell 12.1% from a year earlier. The central bank pointed to lower ore grades and temporary halts at some operations as reasons for the decline. That contraction weighed against growth elsewhere in the economy, leaving the overall annual increase at 0.2%.

Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, and the report described a recovery in mining output as a key factor for the overall economy. The monthly figures lay out the imbalance plainly: a sharp mining fall can pull the national measure toward zero even as other sectors expand.

Trade offsets the copper weakness

Activity outside mining grew 2.0% in September, up from 1.4% growth in August. Commerce rose 4.5%, helped by wholesale and retail trade. Those gains offset part of mining’s decline, but they didn’t lift the total result far from flat.

The report said stronger trade helped offset the sharp fall in copper mining. The figures show the scale of that offset without suggesting that commerce can permanently replace mining’s weight in the national result. The report’s own account keeps the central question fixed on whether mining output recovers.

There’s no account in the report of how the uneven sector results affect workers or households, and it identifies no community response, mutual aid effort, or direct action. Nor does it describe an election or legislative proposal as a route out of the slowdown. Its focus stays on production figures and the central bank’s economic measure.

The next figures depend on mining

The report said a smaller mining decline in October could move the headline toward the 2.0% growth recorded outside mining. Another large fall could keep annual growth near zero or push it below zero. The report did not state how long the mining disruptions would last, leaving that uncertainty in the forecast itself.

The Central Bank of Chile was due to publish preliminary third-quarter GDP on Nov. 18. Until then, September’s narrow increase stands alongside a steep mining contraction and stronger trade. The numbers offer no clean story of broad-based expansion: the national result remains caught between copper weakness and gains elsewhere.

Chile ranked third of 14 countries in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 63.6 points in the October 2026 edition. That ranking sits beside the economic figures, while the immediate measure of activity remains 0.2% annual growth and a mining sector the report identifies as decisive.