Colom Within 4 Points of Hyde-Smith in Mississippi Senate Poll

A new Wedgewood Polls survey puts Democrat Scott Colom four points behind Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race, 52% to 48%. That gap falls within the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error. In a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat in 44 years, the result draws attention.

The survey of 511 likely voters ran Oct. 12-14. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved the race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” though it still lists Hyde-Smith as the favorite. Election Day is Nov. 3.

The poll comes with caveats. Newsweek described it as one poll within the margin of error that doesn’t establish a trend. Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot, but Wedgewood tested only Hyde-Smith and Colom, leaving the head-to-head figure short of a full picture of the contest.

Who’s Driving the Numbers

The survey’s internal breakdown shows a deeply divided electorate. Colom had 91% support among Black voters, who made up 37% of the weighted sample. He also led 56% to 44% among voters aged 18 to 29. Hyde-Smith drew 78% of white voters and 88% of respondents who said they voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.

Wedgewood designed and funded the poll itself. Respondents came from an online panel; pollsters screened them for registration and likelihood of voting, then weighted responses by gender, age, race, ethnicity and education. Subgroup margins of error exceeded the topline figure.

Other polling gives Colom a tougher outlook. A Data for Progress survey of 1,018 likely voters, conducted Aug. 5-15 for the Colom-affiliated Way to Lead PAC, gave Hyde-Smith a six-point lead in a two-candidate matchup. With Pinkins included, Hyde-Smith had 44%, Colom 38%, Pinkins 7% and 11% were undecided. An April Impact Research poll of 500 likely voters, sponsored by the Democratic-aligned SPLC Action Fund, put Hyde-Smith at 42%, Colom at 39% and Pinkins at 6%, with 14% undecided.

A Steep Climb, and a Long History

The terrain is hard. Trump carried Mississippi by about 18 points in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, roughly 16.5 points in 2020 over Joe Biden, and 22.9 points in 2024 over Kamala Harris, with 747,744 votes to 466,668. No Democrat has won a Mississippi Senate election since John C. Stennis secured his final term in 1982.

If Colom wins, he’d also become the first Black candidate popularly elected to represent Mississippi in the Senate. The state’s earlier Black senators, Hiram Revels and Blanche K. Bruce, served during Reconstruction, before the Constitution established direct Senate elections.

Democrats see signs of an opening. In 2025 state legislative special elections, they flipped two Republican-held Senate districts and a House seat, ending the GOP’s two-thirds Senate supermajority. Court-ordered redistricting created additional majority-Black districts before those contests.

The Campaigns

Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney based in Columbus, has campaigned on wages, living costs, hospitals and job creation. Sen. Cory Booker joined him in Gulfport on Oct. 2 to launch a statewide get-out-the-vote drive. “What you do matters,” Booker told supporters. “The power of the people is greater than the people in power.” Former President Barack Obama later appeared in an advertisement backing Colom, and Sens. Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester have campaigned with him. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Democratic donors were directing money to the race as a possible target.

Hyde-Smith has emphasized border security, gun rights and opposition to abortion. Her campaign has sought to link Colom to nationally prominent Democrats and progressive donors.

Pinkins, a Mississippi native, 21-year U.S. Army veteran and public-interest attorney, is running on more affordable health care, investment in rural communities and education, voting-rights protections, support for veterans and curbing political corruption. He says both major parties have failed ordinary Mississippians.

Why This Matters:

One poll doesn’t make a trend, and the other surveys show Colom further back. Still, the race spotlights issues Mississippi voters face daily: wages, living costs, hospitals and rural investment. Colom and Pinkins are pressing those themes, which speak to how public services and economic opportunity reach communities long left behind. The contest also tests whether court-ordered redistricting and voter mobilization can change who gets heard in state politics, as the 2025 special elections suggested. And if Colom were to win, it would mark a milestone in representation for a state where Black voters made up 37% of this poll’s sample but haven’t been able to elect a senator in the modern era. Whatever happens Nov. 3, the margin will say something about turnout and whether those concerns can cut across a deeply polarized electorate.