Senate Power Turns on Four Unsettled Races

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate, and CNN polling in four states puts that prize within reach without making the outcome certain. Three of the seats are currently held by Republicans. The route runs through Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas, where voters are weighing candidates and party control inside the existing electoral system.

A narrow path through the ballot box

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers, 49% to 42%, among likely voters. El-Sayed had the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90% in the previous poll. Three-quarters of his supporters said their vote was primarily for him. By contrast, 57% of Rogers' supporters said their vote was against El-Sayed. Half of likely voters viewed Rogers unfavorably, up from 42% in early September; views of El-Sayed remained roughly evenly split between favorable and unfavorable.

CNN said there had been no clear leader around Labor Day. The new lead reflected worsening views of Rogers and consolidated Democratic support after the state's contentious August primary. A sharper contest, then, still runs through party consolidation and candidate ratings.

Texas Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton, 49% to 43%. Texas had not elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades. Talarico had support from 63% of Latino likely voters and 64% of likely voters of color overall, including 22% of voters of color who said they backed Trump in 2024. Most Talarico supporters said their vote was primarily for him. CNN attributed his position to negative views of Paxton and support among Black, Latino and Asian voters.

The Texas poll also found Trump's approval rating had turned negative, while the Republican Party remained more popular than the Democratic Party and the governor's race had no clear leader. That’s the political terrain: a Democratic Senate candidate leads, but party preference and statewide contests tell a less settled story.

Close counts, uneven ground

Maine's Republican Sen. Susan Collins stood at 45% and Democrat Troy Jackson at 49%, with no clear leader. Fifty-four percent viewed Collins unfavorably; Jackson was viewed unfavorably by 46% and favorably by 39%. About three-quarters of likely voters supporting either candidate said their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson. More voters reported seeing advertising supporting Collins, 42%, than Jackson, 27%.

Jackson's supporters were more likely to say they were extremely motivated to vote, 79% to 62%. More than nine in 10 Maine likely voters said they were locked into their choice. Yet Collins drew support from 21% of Trump disapprovers, compared with 16% for Rogers, 12% for Marshall and 10% for Paxton. The race remains tight despite Maine voting Democratic in 2024 and initially being viewed as one of Democrats' strongest pickup opportunities.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton led Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, 49% to 45%, but the state was the most Republican-friendly of the four polled. About one-third of likely voters viewed the Democratic Party positively, and likely voters said they preferred Republican control of the Senate. Fifty-nine percent of Hamilton's supporters said opposition to Marshall was their primary motivation. Hamilton also drew support from about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

Party control isn't the whole story

CNN said at least one in eight likely voters in all but Maine could still change their minds. In Texas and Kansas, at least six in 10 of those uncommitted voters were Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. Across all four states, enough voters remained movable to close the gaps. Still, a majority of voters said factors other than control of the Senate were their top consideration. The polling offers a possible electoral path to Senate control, not a settled transfer of power.

CNN conducted the polls online and by telephone among likely voters. Fieldwork ran Oct. 20-27, 2026, in Michigan and Texas, and Oct. 20-26, 2026, in Kansas and Maine. The margin of sampling error ranged from 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points. These are snapshots of likely voters' choices, not a report of community self-organization or mutual aid; the contest presented here is over which party will hold institutional power.