Egypt's Military Academy Shapes Sisi's Succession Plan

At a military academy graduation ceremony on Saturday, Abdel Fattah El Sisi said he would leave office when his mandate ends in 2030. He also proposed that the armed forces train potential future national leaders. That same day, Moody’s Ratings upgraded Egypt to B3, still six notches below investment grade, citing reforms, easing inflation and stronger business confidence.

Succession Through the Academy

“My term in office ends in 2030 and this is a total given and will not be debated,” El Sisi said. He added that he would not “abandon the state of Egypt before it's rich with its sons who can shoulder the responsibility after me.” Under his proposal, the military academy would invite as many as 1,000 candidates with doctorates from Egyptian or foreign universities for a 30-month course on “what is a nation and how to protect it.” The armed forces would sponsor the course, with graduates forming the next generation of national leaders.

Applicants must be between 40 and 50, and officials will interview and vet them. El Sisi didn't say whether civilians and military personnel could both apply. Critics on social media suggested the eligibility conditions might require a constitutional amendment. El Sisi said the academy could produce a leader “a 100 times better than me” and asked Egyptians to support the idea.

The academy already holds a central role in government. El Sisi has insisted that government employees, including school teachers, mosque imams and diplomats, train there before officials can hire or promote them. Some see the process as part of a drive to make the armed forces the country's final authority, giving it control over important parts of the economy, foreign policy and security. El Sisi also called on parliament to pass legislation naming the armed forces as protector of the state, democracy and Egypt's territorial integrity.

He rejected rumours that he was grooming a family member to succeed him. Earlier in the week, he announced there would be no constitutional changes to let him remain in power beyond 2030. Some social media accounts urged him to stay; some are known to be linked to the government or security agencies. His current mandate ends in 2030.

Rules, Stability and the Cost of Reform

Constitutional amendments adopted in a 2019 national referendum underpin El Sisi's current term. Before the amendments, the constitution limited presidents to two four-year terms. The changes kept the two-term limit but extended each term to six years, and treated El Sisi's first term as beginning in 2018 rather than 2014, when he was first elected. Egypt adopted its constitution in a nationwide referendum in 2014, three years after an uprising removed Hosni Mubarak from power.

Moody’s said fiscal consolidation, stronger revenue collection and reduced government debt and interest burdens supported the B3 upgrade. The New York-based agency gave Egypt a positive outlook, citing fiscal discipline and reforms that performed better than expected. Fitch and S&P Global affirmed their ratings on Egypt the previous week.

Households still bear the cost of the economic figures. Higher energy prices after the Iran war pushed inflation to 13.9 per cent in September, Capmas data showed. Egypt, a net energy importer, introduced fuel-saving measures. Moody’s said authorities adjusted domestic fuel and electricity prices, used spending contingencies and energy-conservation measures, and expanded targeted social support instead of reversing energy-price reforms. The agency said those measures limited the fiscal consequences of higher commodity prices.

Since March 2024, Egypt's flexible exchange rate and tighter monetary policy have strengthened external buffers, Moody’s said. In July, Egypt unlocked about $1.8 billion in funding after clearing the latest review of its expanded economic programme with the International Monetary Fund. The upgrade changes how lenders assess the state’s finances, but it doesn't erase inflation, energy costs or political questions about who gets to prepare the next national leadership.