67 Endorsements, No Majority: Israel's Coalition Math

Gadi Eisenkot has 67 parliamentarians backing his chance to form Israel’s next government, but those endorsements don’t give him a governing majority. The numbers expose the gap between choosing who gets to negotiate power and deciding who can actually exercise it: neither bloc won the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to announce his decision on Sunday. Eisenkot, leader of Yashar, won 21 seats in last month’s vote, the most of any party not aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu. Herzog was considered all but certain to give him the mandate. That starts negotiations, not a government.

The arithmetic of power

Eisenkot leads four Zionist parties in the so-called change bloc, which holds 48 seats. It needs at least 13 more to reach 61, unless enough other parties abstain and allow it to govern with a plurality. Once Herzog gives Eisenkot the mandate, he’ll have 28 days to negotiate, with a possible 14-day extension if the president allows it. If he fails, another candidate could get a chance, or another election could follow.

The first possible route runs through the ultra-Orthodox parties, despite the change bloc’s campaign pledge not to govern with them. United Torah Judaism has seven seats and told Herzog it would endorse neither candidate. Its leaders said the party would support whichever bloc made concessions on Haredi conscription, including dropping sanctions against people who refuse to enlist. If it moved to Eisenkot’s side, he could secure a plurality if the Arab parties abstained.

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu and a member of the change bloc, signaled on Friday that he was open to working with the haredi parties to replace Netanyahu. Lieberman has for years been known for strong opposition to those parties. “The election results require all of us to rethink our approach and recognize that there are no good alternatives or magic solutions before us,” he wrote on X/Twitter. He called for “flexibility” and “painful compromises,” including on military conscription.

That concession would collide with the bloc’s own campaign promise. Its leaders had pledged not to serve in a government with the two haredi parties, and enlisting haredi men was a central campaign issue. Dan Illouz, an elected Knesset member from Lieberman’s party, wrote: “We cannot give up on a conscription law.” He said he would oppose compromises on the issue.

The lines candidates draw

Eisenkot has described his proposal as a “national emergency government,” initially based on the four Zionist parties of change and renewal. He said other parties or Knesset members could join if they accepted four principles: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state; acceptance of the values in Israel’s Declaration of Independence; mandatory military or civilian service; and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization. The proposed terms put state identity and service obligations at the center of coalition bargaining.

A second route would require cooperation with the Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which won a combined 19 seats. Eisenkot would need active support from Ra’am and abstention or outside support from the Joint List. Ra’am previously joined the coalition that replaced Netanyahu in 2021 and has made integration into Israeli society central to its platform. The Joint List has signaled willingness to cooperate with the change bloc to bring down Netanyahu’s coalition.

Lieberman rejected relying on either Arab party. “We must not establish a government that relies on the abstention of the Joint List and Ra’am,” he wrote. Cooperation would also break a campaign pledge made by every change-bloc leader. In a late September interview with Channel 12 News, Eisenkot said the Arab parties, including Ra’am, didn’t meet his conditions for joining a government.

The third route is a unity coalition with Netanyahu or some of his parties. Change-bloc leaders appeared to rule that out after the election. Eisenkot called for an “urgent need to replace” Netanyahu’s leadership; Lieberman said “the Netanyahu era must come to an end.” Yair Golan said the bloc had a “historic responsibility” to send Netanyahu home, while Naftali Bennett stressed the urgency of replacing the current government.

If no bloc forms a government and new elections are called, Netanyahu remains prime minister. A unity deal would likely require him to keep the office initially under a rotation agreement. The negotiations may change who holds the machinery of government. The seat count still leaves the same question unanswered: which coalition can assemble enough votes to command it?