Draft-Law Bargain Reopens Coalition Power Play

Avigdor Liberman has dropped his veto on Haredi coalition partners, putting the draft law governing military service back on the negotiating table as parties bargain over who will form Israel’s next government. “This also includes the draft law,” Liberman wrote on X/Twitter Friday. “It hurts me, and I know it hurts many others too.”

The shift concerns more than coalition arithmetic. The terms of military service, exemptions and possible arrests for non-enlistment are now part of a political negotiation over which parties can command a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Liberman’s post confirmed a report by N12 political correspondent Amit Segal on Thursday that the leader of the secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party had relaxed his opposition to joining with Haredi parties.

A majority with conditions

Before the election, Liberman ruled out a coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Haredi parties, or one dependent on Arab parties. He has now dropped the Haredi veto, but retained the other two conditions. Friday’s post expressly rejected accepting Arab-party support. He also ruled out another election and denied discussing a rotation agreement to share the premiership. Within those limits, the draft law is negotiable.

The numbers make the compromise consequential. The non-Arab opposition parties have 48 seats, and the Haredi parties have 13. Together, they would hold 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, creating a possible route to a government led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The bloc’s route to power would exclude Arab-party support, even as it seeks a majority in parliament.

Liberman rejected a minority government enabled by abstentions from Ra’am and the Joint List, Arab political groupings whose lawmakers would remain outside the coalition. He argued such a government could quickly collapse and return Netanyahu with a stronger majority. The Haredi parties have not agreed to the alternative: United Torah Judaism withheld a recommendation for Netanyahu during the president’s consultations on whom to ask to form a government, while Shas recommended him. Both parties are needed for the 61-seat formula.

Service, exemptions and political cover

United Torah Judaism chairman Yakov Asher welcomed Liberman’s new flexibility on conscription Friday, but said his party had received no concrete proposal. Any offer, he said, would go before its rabbinical leadership. Even unsuccessful talks could improve the Haredi parties’ bargaining position with Netanyahu’s Likud, by letting them compare opponents’ offers with the benefits of staying loyal to his bloc.

A Haredi news website, Behadrei Haredim, said in a Friday editorial that loyalty to Netanyahu’s bloc had left the community “empty-handed.” It advocated joining an opposition-led government if legislation secured the status of yeshiva students. Its conditions included protected education budgets and an end to arrests over non-enlistment. Schools, yeshivot, or religious seminaries, and families centered on full-time Torah study depend on funding and legal protections, the article said.

The bargaining lands on Liberman’s own campaign promise. Some voters supported him to press for ultra-Orthodox Israelis to share the burden of military service. In an appeal reported by Channel 13, he demanded universal military or civilian service, rejected quotas and exemptions, and insisted on binding commitments before the election. He had specifically rejected winning first and settling the details afterward.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu’s far-right ally, mocked the opposition’s proclaimed alliance of those who serve, giving Netanyahu’s camp an opening to accuse opponents of accepting concessions they had condemned. Yoaz Hendel, leader of the Reservists party, responded to Thursday’s report with “Shame on you,” citing repeated military call-ups and shortages of soldiers. He renewed his criticism Friday, arguing that removing Netanyahu might not make up for an agreement preserving broad exemptions.

N12 reported that talks could return to a framework Liberman promoted as defense minister in 2018. That proposal would have delayed financial sanctions on yeshivot for three years and imposed no individual sanctions on students who failed to enlist. Liberman’s Friday post set out no agreed terms. The eventual legislation, and any additional enlistment it produces, will determine what the compromise delivers. For now, parties are negotiating over the rules and protections attached to service—and over the political cover a deal could provide.