Hochul Taps Mamdani as Tax Fight Looms Over Her Race

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Bruce Blakeman by 14 points, 55% to 41%, in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. On Friday, Oct. 23, she’ll join New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who describes himself as a standard-bearer of the party’s left, to hand out campaign literature in Brooklyn.

They’re expected to return Sunday, Oct. 25, to launch a canvassing event, according to a person familiar with the plans, who spoke anonymously because the schedule wasn’t yet public. Early voting starts this weekend.

The Calculation

The logic is straightforward. Trip Yang, a Democratic strategist working on a pro-Hochul super PAC, put it bluntly: “Mamdani is the most popular figure in New York City, which is the most vote-rich region. A Democrat can win statewide simply by running up the score in New York City — it basically guarantees a Democratic win. Tapping into Mamdani is just very smart.”

But the arithmetic has a catch. Mamdani’s unexpected victory last year rested on a base heavy with younger voters, drawn to his plan to address the city’s high cost of living. Whether a significant share of them will turn out for Hochul remains uncertain. And her association with him could alienate suburban voters, where Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, is expected to do well.

Where They Part Ways

The two Democrats are a generation apart and represent different wings of the party. Buffalo-born moderate Hochul differs with Mamdani on Israel, policing and taxes. She supports Israel and backed a law intended to restrict protests near houses of worship, a measure New York City’s Jewish community sought after pro-Palestinian demonstrations.

Taxes are their sharpest fault line. Hochul has opposed income-tax increases on wealthy people and large corporations, the very increases Mamdani sought in Albany earlier this year. Local Democratic Socialists of America leaders and other supporters have criticized her for it, complicating his effort to build enthusiasm. Some Democrats, including City Council Speaker Julie Menin, have said tax increases will be needed to expand child care further.

Still, Hochul has given ground elsewhere. Early in the year, she approved additional aid for their shared goal of expanding no-cost child care. Later, she sent state money to help close a New York City budget gap. And she accepted a tax on owners of expensive second homes in the five boroughs, fulfilling a Mamdani campaign pledge to tax the rich.

The Pressure Ahead

If Hochul wins a second full term, she’s expected to face greater pressure from the left, including Mamdani, to raise taxes on wealthy people and large businesses. The dispute hasn’t publicly soured relations between City Hall and Albany. Political analyst Michael Lange said, “She’s not seen him like a foe in the manner of these other establishment Democrats. Zohran campaigning for her certainly comes off as genuine. He has positioned Hochul never as a foe, but as a collaborator the whole time. Child care has proven to be such a core issue for both of them.”

Mamdani’s own clout has grown. In June’s primaries, he campaigned and raised money for candidates in three competitive New York City congressional races. All of them won, defeating two more moderate incumbents. He also backed left-wing challengers in Democratic-dominated House districts. He and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Hochul in February, helping her left flank and ending the campaign of her only primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado.

Since then, he’s kept a low profile. A person close to the mayor said the governor’s race was seen as less competitive than the summer’s congressional primaries and didn’t require as much of his involvement. His team wants him seen as focused on New York City and ruled out campaigning for Hochul elsewhere in the state. Hochul’s campaign released an advertisement last week featuring Mamdani criticizing Blakeman.

David Greenfield, a former city councilmember and head of the Jewish charity Met Council, expects Jewish Democrats to split their tickets but doesn’t think Hochul will be penalized for Mamdani’s support. “Jewish voters are pretty smart,” he said. “We’re capable of holding two ideas at once.”

Why This Matters:

Brooklyn appearances make the calculation plain. A double-digit lead still leaves a moderate governor courting her party’s left flank. The costs may come after Election Day. Hochul has resisted income-tax hikes on wealthy residents and large businesses, yet she’s already accepted a second-home tax and sent state money to close a city budget gap. If she wins, Mamdani and his allies will likely press for more, with child care expansion as their stated rationale. For taxpayers and employers across New York, the question is whether Albany holds the line or keeps trading policy for political support. Blakeman is expected to run strong in the suburbs, and voters there will be watching that answer closely.