Iran Hits Seven Tankers as Hormuz Costs Keep Climbing

Iran said seven oil tankers caught fire or suffered damage overnight in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran hit them or they struck naval mines. Iranian state television attributed the claims to the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy. The Associated Press couldn’t independently confirm them, and the report mentioned no casualties. Tehran again threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the region if the United States keeps helping guide commercial ships through a waterway Iran claims to control and treats as leverage in talks with Washington.

The attacks come during the conflict’s busiest month for commercial shipping. October has recorded the most reported attacks on commercial vessels since March, when the war began, according to the British military monitor United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 28 attacks on ships in October, the highest number since the war began.

The Dark Shuttle

Here’s what stands out: the oil is still moving. Lloyd’s said tankers continue to transit the strait under U.S. military protection, and “active Gulf operators show little sign of retreating,” despite the attacks. Operators willing to make the journey move crude from Gulf producers at night, with location systems and mobile phones switched off, along a U.S.-protected lane near Oman’s coast. They transfer the oil to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman for shipment to Asian customers.

U.S. Central Command oversees the arrangement, which has kept Gulf oil shipments at roughly prewar levels. It hasn’t come cheap. The “dark shuttle” demands more time, money and risk for sailors. Spot charter rates for tankers have climbed to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, and ship-to-ship transfers can take several days. Producers have found ways to keep crude flowing, experts say, but at mounting cost.

The market is adapting faster than Tehran can maintain its leverage. Middle East oil exports topped prewar levels last week as shipping companies turned to alternative routes. HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery projected that investment in alternative logistics could make Hormuz “redundant” in five years.

Strike Planning and Political Calendar

The tanker attacks come amid concern that U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could resume. Israel votes on Oct. 27, five days away, and U.S. midterms follow in November. The New York Times reported, citing people familiar with deliberations, that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed renewed strikes with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. TIME reported that Washington and Jerusalem are developing plans for major strikes after the midterms, with possible targets including Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. The Times reported that President Donald Trump hasn’t approved the proposed strikes.

“Netanyahu wants to attack Iran, that’s not even a question,” Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a former Iran specialist in Israel’s military and intelligence services, told The Associated Press. He said an attack was almost guaranteed if Netanyahu won clearly, and he believed the region was headed toward “another kinetic escalation.” Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, offered a counterweight: “The larger constraint is Washington.”

Trump has shown restraint before. He reportedly blocked an Israeli multi-day offensive earlier this month and rejected five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months. The last reported U.S. strikes on Iran came on Sept. 8. Trump has also floated pressure short of all-out war: some officials argue an intense but limited campaign, layered on the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and economic sanctions, could hasten Iran’s economic collapse and make Tehran more willing to negotiate. Trump said last month, “I believe we’ll make a deal, right after the election.”

Tehran’s Posture

Iran isn’t offering much. Its leaders said this week they won’t negotiate directly with the United States unless Washington ends its naval blockade and releases frozen Iranian funds. Tehran keeps promoting a proposal to reopen the strait within a week if the United States meets several conditions, echoing a June deal that fell apart within days of both sides signing it. Trump rejected the seven-day proposal in late September, though both sides acknowledge indirect discussions continue.

The threats are widening. Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei told Press TV that Iran could retaliate against renewed attacks by targeting U.S.-linked data centers and AI facilities in the Gulf, plus subsea communications cables. IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi said even a limited American attack would provoke a “serious energy crisis” for the world. Rezaei, though, acknowledged Iran would suffer under a prolonged U.S. blockade.

The Soufan Center, a New York-based nonpartisan research organization, said in an Oct. 1 analysis that both sides appear to believe they have enough leverage, and those “dueling perceptions” have impeded a deal.

Saudi Front

The fallout is spreading. On Wednesday, the State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including airports and Aramco facilities. The Houthis have also tried to disrupt shipping through Bab El-Mandeb, an alternative route to Hormuz. Trump said earlier this month the United States “may” join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. It hasn’t happened.

Why This Matters:

The Hormuz standoff is a live test of how much pressure a state can put on global energy supply when markets and a determined navy push back. So far, the facts cut both ways. Operators are rerouting, exports have topped prewar levels, and private investment in alternatives is under way. But sailors face real danger, charter rates have climbed to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, and energy prices and inflation remain elevated. For Washington, the choice ahead isn’t just military. Any large strike risks the price spike Iran has promised, with consequences for households and for the president’s standing as midterms approach. Allies, from Gulf producers to Asian buyers, are watching whether American protection keeps the oil moving without a wider war.