Trump's Iran War Costs GOP Votes, Keeps Escalating

Hours before voters went to the polls on Nov. 3, the United States struck Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump later acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican losses in the midterm elections, but said he didn’t regret starting it. The election changed which candidates won seats. It didn’t stop the military apparatus from striking Iran.

War at the ballot box

Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said Wednesday that Americans had rejected the war. “Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” he wrote on X. He cited the cost of living or “conscience” as possible reasons for Republican losses.

The Associated Press reported that Democrats flipped Republican-held Senate seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. Trump had chosen GOP nominees or campaigned for them. The AP Voter Poll found about two-thirds of voters said Trump’s policies had worsened economic conditions in the United States; only about 3 in 10 said they had improved them. About two-thirds said his tariffs had hurt the national or local economy.

Trump acknowledged the war’s political cost in a phone interview with Fox News. “Part of it was Iran,” he said, adding that “at the same time, people understand the importance of what I’ve done.” In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he said, “Iran was a piece of it.” Asked if he regretted the war, Trump said: “I don’t think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again.”

CNN reported that Trump launched a surprise attack on Iran fewer than two weeks after Republican strategists had mapped out their midterm approach. The strikes killed much of Iran’s top leadership, according to CNN, and the offensive hardened Iran’s resolve. The United States was drawn into a war that killed American service members and halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to a global energy crisis.

Who paid for the decisions

The rising costs reached beyond campaign strategy. By summer, gas prices topped $4 and continued rising, while grocery prices increased, CNN reported. A Trump adviser had warned that oil reaching $100 a barrel posed a political risk; oil reached that price by the war’s second month, and U.S. gasoline prices neared $4 per gallon.

Trump called the economic impact “short-term pain,” repeatedly said fuel prices would fall and dismissed affordability concerns as a “hoax.” At a September rally in North Carolina, he said: “It was a word they made up. And I got hit with this affordability word for a year-and-a-half.” He had promised costs would fall “on day one,” CNN reported.

Republican candidates and advisers debated whether to distance themselves from Trump’s tariffs and the war. Many feared alienating his supporters or provoking him. Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson put the responsibility plainly: “If the war had not happened, it would be an entirely different election cycle. And only one person started that war.”

The ballot produced losses for Republicans, but the strikes and blockade remained in motion. On Nov. 3, a U.S. official said the targets in the strait were Iranians using surface-to-air missiles against U.S. forces. Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm and Hengam islands and in Bandar Abbas. Thousands of U.S. troops remained in waters off Iran to maintain a naval blockade, and another aircraft carrier and thousands of additional troops were headed to the Middle East.

Negotiations under the blockade

Diplomatic efforts continued alongside the military activity. The officials involved were trying to develop a framework under which Iran would cease attacks in the strait in return for the United States lifting its blockade. Iran had offered to reopen the strait and resume nuclear talks if the United States lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observed a ceasefire that included Lebanon.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi urged Iran and the United States to negotiate and warned against further military escalation. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he and Trump “both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pressed Trump for renewed strikes during a weekend call, according to two regional officials and another person familiar with the matter, all speaking anonymously.

The account describes diplomacy by officials and mediators, not a grassroots or mutual-aid response. Trump said he remained open to an agreement but threatened to resume major U.S. strikes after the elections. On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said four oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines while attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The ballot count was over. The military threat, blockade and negotiations were not.