Iran War Hits U.S. Midterms as Civilians Pay

Iran’s economy contracted 10.1% year-on-year in the three months to June 20 as a US naval blockade, wartime damage and disrupted trade squeezed production and shipping. In the United States, voters handed Democrats control of both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, amid rising fuel prices and the war with Iran. The ballot shifted the balance inside Washington. It didn’t stop the war machine from keeping its options open.

Donald Trump defended the military campaign he launched alongside Israel in February, even as he acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican losses. “I am totally convinced that my decision on Iran for the long term good of our country and even the world was absolutely the correct one and it continues to be,” he told Politico. He told The Wall Street Journal, “I did the right thing. I would have done it again.”

The price of the campaign

The conflict disrupted energy markets and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to higher fuel costs in the United States and internationally. Gasoline reached about $4.48 a gallon by May, according to NPR and Marist. Trump told Fox News that voters felt fuel costs more than the military campaign: “I don't think it's a war. I think it's a gasoline price.” He said people agreed with his Iran policy but were “probably” unwilling to accept higher prices in the short term, calling it “a short-term problem, but for long-term gain.”

For people in Iran, stalled cargo, shortages and lost production carry the damage. Mohammad-Ali Kargascha, a board member of Iran's International Transport Companies Association, said cargo was piling up in Pakistani ports. “At first, they cited 3,000 containers, then 8,000, and eventually stated that 18,000 containers remain stranded there,” he told Mehr news agency. Storage and other costs for some shipments exceeded $25,000, approaching the value of the goods. Firms struggled to find alternative transport through Turkey, while rerouted shipments faced higher costs and delays.

GDP excluding oil shrank by 4.6% in the three months to June 20. Industry and mining contracted by 14.7%, and oil and gas output fell by 26.4%. Attacks on four Iranian gas-processing facilities in March knocked around 230 million cubic metres of daily production capacity offline. Officials said they restored about 100 million, leaving 130 million unavailable.

Hedayatollah Khademi, a former member of parliament's Energy Commission, said Iran faced a gas shortfall of around 400 million cubic metres a day. “It is painful that we are the world's second-largest holder of gas reserves, yet in winter we have to hope that the weather does not turn cold,” he told ILNA news agency. The National Iranian Gas Company warned that 11 of Iran's 31 provinces could face winter supply difficulties and that industrial consumers might need alternative fuels.

Ballots, vetoes and military options

Democrats flipped six Republican-held Senate seats, according to NBC News and CBS News projections, and won the House. NBC counted 51 Democratic Senate seats to 40 Republican seats when it called the chamber; its House estimate put Democrats at about 255 seats to Republicans' 180. Another count cited by Kurdistan24 had called 221 Democratic House seats to 128 Republican seats as counting continued, with Alaska and Maine still undecided in that account.

Trump said he’d welcome the nickname “Mr. Veto” and use his “ultimate power” against Democratic legislation. Overriding a veto requires two-thirds of both chambers, which Democrats don’t have on their own. On Truth Social, Trump wrote, “I wasn't on the Ballot,” adding that he would have won in a landslide if he had been. He later said he was “absolutely willing to accept those results” and would “work with the Democrats.”

The election brought no promise to halt military action. Trump said there were no immediate plans for another major attack, but US forces remained ready. “We're ready. We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it,” he told the Financial Times. After a US strike on an Iranian air-defense facility on Monday, he called it “just a minor attack” and said it “wasn't war.” He also said indirect negotiations over Iran's enriched-uranium stockpile continued, calling it “nuclear dust.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday that two more tankers had been destroyed by naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz and that it had shot down another US MQ-9 drone; those claims had not been independently verified. Washington confirmed limited strikes on Iranian military installations on Qeshm Island. The New York Times reported that US Central Command had developed options for renewed strikes, including a short, intensive campaign. Some members of Trump's administration argued that economic pressure and the blockade should get more time.

Discontent beyond the ballot

Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf cast the Democratic gains as a rejection of the war. “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” he wrote on X, warning Washington against disregarding what he described as voters' message.

In Iran, Mark Pyruz, who monitors protests, recorded 30 demonstrations across 19 locations in the last week of October. The protests largely concerned unpaid benefits, pensions, wages and fuel shortages. Pyruz said they remained relatively small and predominantly economic, while discontent continued across the country. Qatar was relaying messages between Washington and Tehran, but a senior Iranian official told Reuters the sides remained far from an agreement to end the war. The costs show up in fuel bills, stranded goods and shortages; decision-makers keep military options on the table.