Israel Votes Oct. 27 With Right Split, Expats Flying In

One week before Israelis vote on October 27, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Moti Leitner, head of the new ultra-Orthodox Charedi Public party, in Petah Tikva and tried to persuade him to leave the race. Ynet and Haaretz reported that Netanyahu offered to advance policies important to the party and appoint Leitner special adviser for ultra-Orthodox affairs in the next government if he withdrew. Leitner refused. He told reporters he didn't feel he had the "moral right" to quit.

The meeting shows how tight the arithmetic looks inside Netanyahu's camp. Charedi Public is expected to fall well below the 3.25% electoral threshold. If the party fails to enter the Knesset, it could draw votes from the two main Netanyahu-aligned ultra-Orthodox parties, leaving its own ballots unrepresented. Leitner said Likud and the Haredi parties missed their chance to strike a deal before party lists were finalized last month. He said he no longer trusts their promises.

A Right Wing Fighting Itself

The pressure extends beyond one small party. On Tuesday, Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich met Rabbi Eli Sadan, spiritual mentor to former general Ofer Winter, to urge Winter's People of Israel party to withdraw, worried that he could cost their bloc votes. Winter wasn't persuaded. He said he'll stay in the race and support only a government that drafts Haredim and doesn't yield to the sector's demands. "Those who serve will receive more and those who do not - nothing," he said. "We are not giving up. We will be a big surprise," he added.

Inside Likud, some members reject the pressure campaign. Walla obtained messages from an internal activist WhatsApp group showing members warning that the effort could backfire. "When will you understand that Winter is the only one blocking an Eisenkot government?" one member wrote. "If he doesn't cross the threshold, the Right won't have a government for the next four years." Another said the attack on Winter had "completely failed." A third pointed to a poll showing his party gaining a full percentage point this week.

Then there's the Ben Gvir dispute. His Otzma Yehudit party said it remains "100% committed" to Netanyahu, but accused Likud of planning to exclude Ben Gvir from the next government in favor of a coalition with Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot. The party cited remarks by Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter to CNN about Netanyahu's desire for a unity government without Ben Gvir. Likud hit back, saying Ben Gvir "is a senior minister in our government, and he will remain so in the next government" if the pro-Netanyahu bloc wins. Likud accused him of "friendly fire" and of using the right-wing Instagram news page Push to attack the prime minister. It also said smaller right-leaning parties, including Winter's, Yoav Hendel's Reservists-Economic party and the Noam party, are "wasting precious right-wing votes."

The Expat Vote

Across the Atlantic, thousands of Israelis are booking flights home. Israel doesn't allow absentee voting except for diplomats and emissaries posted abroad, so citizens 18 and older who live overseas must be in Israel on Election Day. AID Coalition, a nonpartisan U.S. nonprofit, estimates that 53,000 Israelis abroad will make the trip. The estimate draws on an August survey of 17,500 respondents, extrapolated; CEO Batell Vallentine Blaish-Sultanik said no comparable data set exists for earlier elections.

Much of the organizing runs through WhatsApp networks formed during the 2023 protests against the government's judicial overhaul. After Hamas's October 2023 invasion, activists repurposed the networks for hostage advocacy, fundraising and supplies for soldiers and civilians. Since the final hostages were released last year, activists have turned back to Israeli politics, organizing phone banks, expatriate surveys and Zoom information sessions. The groups appear to oppose Netanyahu, though pro-Netanyahu activists also demonstrate in the U.S.

Maya Ben-Meir, an Israeli musician who moved to the United States 13 years ago, said her circle's motivation is "absolutely because of Netanyahu." She criticized him for opposing a state commission of inquiry into October 7. Eitan Berechman, 22, called this "the most consequential" election in Israeli history. He and his parents spent $6,000 on tickets. In AID Coalition's survey, price and availability ranked as the most frequently cited obstacles, with flights unpredictable amid recent wars and airline cancellations.

How many will actually arrive? Nobody knows. Standard Israeli polls don't survey expatriates flying in, so the groups' organizers acknowledge that their impact is uncertain. A December 2025 Israel Democracy Institute survey found Jewish Israelis on the left and center, and those more dissatisfied with "Israel's situation," were more inclined to move abroad. Likud opposed the Fly&Vote effort, apparently assuming most travelers would support opposition parties.

The Accountability Argument

In the Jerusalem Post, opinion writer Daniel Goldman argued that the vote is about responsibility for the October 7 failure. He noted that Hamas terrorists operated unopposed for hours in Be'eri, Kfar Aza, Nir Oz and Ofakim. He asked how Hamas still controls large parts of Gaza after repeated promises of "total victory," while fronts with Hezbollah, Iran and Syria remain open. Goldman said Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman deserve a chance to form a government. He also criticized Netanyahu's West Bank policy and settler violence. His piece was opinion, and he's identified as a founding partner of Goldrock Capital.

Why This Matters: Israel is choosing its government while Hamas still holds territory in Gaza and the Hezbollah, Iran and Syria fronts remain open, as Goldman's column notes. A fractured right, with small parties hovering near the threshold, could determine whether a coalition forms at all. Votes below 3.25% count for nothing. The arithmetic matters as much as any debate over leadership. Whoever governs inherits unresolved security questions: Hamas's grip on parts of Gaza, open fronts with Hezbollah, Iran and Syria, and a draft dispute over who serves. Voters, at home and flying in, are weighing leadership accountability against the risk of coalition paralysis in a region where adversaries don't wait for Israeli politics to settle.