Knesset Haggling Over Draft Exemptions While Arabs Get Frozen Out

Parties representing 67 members of the 120-seat Knesset recommended Gadi Eisenkot for prime minister, and 19 of those lawmakers come from the two Arab-led lists. Then Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu, announced he won't back any government that relies on them. Nineteen seats. Nearly 6.7 million dollars' worth of arithmetic, if you want to count it that way. Zero seats at the table.

That's the opening bid in the latest round of the state's favorite parlor game. President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Eisenkot with forming a government on Sunday. By law, the clock now runs 28 days from that date, with a possible extension of up to 14 more. Two days have gone by as of November 10; 26 remain of the 28-day period. Eisenkot's Yashar party called Monday's meeting with Liberman "constructive and productive," and said both men "expressed full confidence in their ability to form a stable government for a full four-year term." The statement, as The Times of Israel reported, gave no details of any agreement.

The Arithmetic of Exclusion

The numbers don't cooperate. Eisenkot needs at least 61 lawmakers to secure parliamentary confidence. Outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats. The Jerusalem Post reported the opposition bloc won 48, and neither side has the 61-seat majority required. Liberman has ruled out a minority government as well as one that relies on Arab-led parties, while signaling he's open to talks with ultra-Orthodox factions.

So the math for forming a government runs through the ultra-Orthodox parties, not through the 19 lawmakers who helped hand Eisenkot his mandate. Eisenkot himself has said "unconventional steps" would be required. The deadlock could end in another election, though the parties can still reach a deal through coalition negotiations.

What's Actually for Sale

The bargaining chip is military conscription. Eisenkot met former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Sunday evening; neither issued a statement, and Bennett hasn't said publicly whether he'd back a coalition that preserves draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox seminary students, Ynet reported. His Together party campaigned on ending government funding for people who perform neither military nor national civilian service. Incoming lawmaker Liran Avisar Ben-Horin said Monday: "We remain loyal to our principles and will do everything to achieve the outcome closest to what we promised voters."

On the other side of the ledger, Hamodia, a newspaper affiliated with the Ger Hasidic movement, said any coalition agreement would need enforceable guarantees to protect the status of seminary students. Some figures in United Torah Judaism, a longtime Netanyahu ally, have signaled openness to an Eisenkot-led government. Everyone's principles, it turns out, have a price list, and the item on the shelf is who gets drafted into the army and who gets a state stipend for staying out of it.

The Speaker's Chair

Before Tuesday's swearing-in of the 26th Knesset, Yashar asked United Torah Judaism and Shas to support replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Likud member. United Torah Judaism declined, and Shas was expected to withhold support, Ynet reported. The prize is control of the Knesset's legislative agenda, which the opposition bloc wants immediately after the swearing-in.

The new Knesset will seat 47 first-time MKs, who sat through an orientation day Monday. All 120 will declare their allegiance. Herzog and Ohana will speak. Alex Rif, a Yashar slate member who heads the party's olim integration initiative, told The Jerusalem Post she planned to work on helping olim learn Hebrew and work in Israel.

Who Isn't in the Room

Strip away the pageantry and the pattern is plain. A pledge of allegiance, a ceremonial speech, a 28-day countdown, and a bidding war over who gets exempted from the army. The 19 lawmakers elected by Arab-led lists supplied the margin for the mandate and then got ruled out of the coalition by the man whose support Eisenkot needs. The seminary students' status is a matter for enforceable guarantees; nobody in the base reporting is demanding guarantees for anyone else.

Everyone involved has declared full confidence. Nobody has produced a majority.