Israel’s Election: Unity Talk, War and State Power

A record 22,000 police officers were deployed ahead of Israel’s October 27 parliamentary election, as officials feared unrest if either political bloc rejected the results. The vote may produce no clear majority; polling cited by Arab News projected 51 seats each for the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot. In a 120-seat Knesset, a government needs at least 61.

The ballot is being sold as a choice over who can govern. The leading camps both leave military power and the state’s authority intact; their disputes include how to use that power, who joins a coalition and what comes next in Gaza and the occupied territories.

The coalition arithmetic

Former Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel, who launched the Israel First party after resigning on July 14, says her party could force the two blocs to govern together if it passes the electoral threshold. “What we have today in politics is two camps: the Bibi camp, where everything he says is completely holy, and the anti-Bibi camp, where everything he says is a crime,” she said.

Haskel called for “a strong government” and “a united government,” saying it should avoid sectoral interests. No Israeli party has ever won enough seats to govern alone. Coalition negotiations after elections have been the route to power, and this election offers no escape from that arithmetic: President Isaac Herzog would first ask the leader considered most likely to form a government to assemble at least 61 seats. That leader would have 42 days. If unsuccessful, another leader would get 28 days, followed by a Knesset-nominated candidate with 14 days. If no government emerged, Israel would hold another election.

Arab-led parties could hold the balance. The Joint List, co-led by Yousef Jabareen and made up of Hadash, Ta'al and Balad, was projected to win nine seats; Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, was projected to win five. Together, those 14 seats could give either bloc a majority of five. Jabareen said the Joint List would consider supporting the anti-Netanyahu bloc if conditions, including a pathway to Palestinian statehood, were met. “We have full freedom of action, with no limits, to replace the Netanyahu government, and we will use all the tools at our disposal,” he said.

Netanyahu rejected Palestinian statehood and said he would never form a coalition with Arab parties. Eisenkot also opposed a Palestinian state, saying, “Anyone who is thinking about a two-state solution after Oct. 7 is just delusional.” He said he would partner with anyone who accepted Israel as a Jewish democratic state and Hamas as a terrorist organization that “needs to be dismantled and destroyed.” Coalition red lines, Arab News reported, could soften in negotiations.

War remains on the table

The vote is Israel’s first parliamentary election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and has been widely seen as a referendum on perceived security failures by Netanyahu’s government. Netanyahu hopes to secure a fourth term. His bloc includes far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party, running with the Zehut party headed by Moshe Feiglin. Smotrich has worked in government to expand settlements in the occupied territories and block a Palestinian state; Zehut campaigned for annexation of Gaza and the West Bank.

Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, said Hamas would no longer rule Gaza within 18 months of his taking office, through the U.S.-led peace framework or military action. He said Israel would not withdraw until Hamas disarmed. Naftali Bennett said he would maintain the yellow line between Israeli- and Hamas-controlled areas until Hamas disarmed. Military affairs analyst Yaakov Lappin expected military operations to continue under any government, citing the difficulty of removing Hamas from power and finding new leadership to govern Gaza.

Lappin said a center-left government might withdraw troops from more areas more quickly than a Netanyahu government. He also said a different government might act more quickly and forcefully against attacks on Palestinians by violent settler groups, while Eisenkot and Bennett did not want a wider confrontation with the settler community. On the Palestinian Authority and Israel, he said existing power dynamics would not change overnight. Yair Golan proposed strengthening security coordination with the Palestinian Authority while halting West Bank annexation moves and acting against violent settlers. The proposal puts coordination and state security at the center of the proposed alternative, too.

A change of government, not of machinery

Netanyahu said, “There will never be a Palestinian state. This place is ours,” while marking approval of the E1 settlement development, which would divide the West Bank. Eisenkot opposed approval of E1 but supported settlements that comply with Israeli law, though international law regards them as illegal. In Gaza, he endorsed the U.S.-led framework but tied withdrawal to Hamas disarming.

The election’s security apparatus is already visible: police deployments, fears of a bloc claiming forged results, and the prospect of coalition bargaining over military objectives. A scenario dubbed “Operation Capitol” refers to the possibility that a bloc could reject the result and undermine public order. Neither the campaign proposals nor the coalition arithmetic described in the reporting offers a break from rule through state institutions. The question before voters is who will command them, and on what terms.