Fuel Costs Squeeze Kansas Farmers as Trump Rallies

Diesel now sells for $6.30 a gallon nationwide, more than 70% higher than a year ago. Kansas farmers are burning through it at the busiest moment of their year. President Donald Trump heads to a rally near Wichita on Monday to shore up a Senate seat Republicans haven’t lost in almost 100 years.

The seat belongs to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points over Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, and Democrats haven’t won a Kansas Senate election in 94 years. Still, Republicans are spending money to defend it, along with Senate races in Nebraska and Iowa, amid worries about voter enthusiasm. Trump was expected to speak at 7 p.m. EDT, with an Iowa stop set for later in the week.

Who Pays the Price at the Pump

Fifth-generation Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow calls harvest “go time.” Farmers combine fields, haul crops to town and move livestock from summer pastures to winter homes. This year, he said, diesel costs more than $2.50 per gallon above its price a year earlier. “It seems like it’s coming at us from all directions,” said Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, which endorsed Marshall.

The squeeze reaches well beyond fuel. Farmers face higher costs for diesel, fertilizer and seed amid refinery constraints and supply disruptions tied to the Iran war. “This is a time of year when we use a lot of fuel, and there just isn’t much we can do,” Brunkow said. “The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.”

The numbers back him up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects net farm income will fall 2.6% this year while production expenses rise 4.5%. The agency’s September forecast says fuel and oil costs alone will jump nearly 30%.

The Administration’s Response

Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order easing limits on tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, which he said would save “millions” for farmers. The administration had announced a $12 billion aid package for farmers in December. Brunkow said many farmers “thought it would be better” under Trump. “He’s made some unforced errors,” he said. “Miscalculations, bad advice, that had unintended consequences.”

Club for Growth president David McIntosh, whose group is spending millions for GOP candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere, was blunt about the cause. “Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs,” he said. “The economic environment has not been good.”

Frustration Inside the Party

Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, said frustration is growing among GOP voters, including people who backed Trump in multiple elections. Farmers understand tariffs hurt their businesses, he said, and they’re upset about the ongoing war with Iran. Recent immigration raids in western Kansas detained more than 100 people, making immigration a concern too.

“We need a secure border — we can all agree on that,” Hineman said. “But we also need workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.” He said the old argument that electing Democrats empowers the party’s liberal wing is losing its punch. “I am so fed up with the Republican Party and their willingness to play sycophant to our current commander in chief that I’m willing to consider alternatives.”

Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, has never voted for a Democrat and remains undecided. Hamilton impressed her when he visited a local market, she said, a visit she hadn’t seen Marshall make. Rising health care and everyday expenses weigh on her. “The Republicans haven’t done the Midwest any favors with that,” she said of trade agreements.

Democrats See an Opening

Brunkow doesn’t expect economic anger to turn farmers into Democrats. But he said it “dampens the enthusiasm for agriculture producers to get to the polls.”

Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat who lost reelection in 2024, said there’s “no doubt” Democrats will outperform expectations in agricultural states. “These guys got to pay bills at the end of the month, and for a number of months now it’s been hard to do,” Tester said. “This is way beyond politics.” A farmer since 1978, he recalled the 1980s farm crisis, when “a fair number of my neighbors left town.” “We’re setting up for the same kind of situation,” he said. “The economics in family farm production agriculture right now are probably worse right now than they were in the 1980s.”

The fight extends beyond Kansas. In Nebraska, Senate Republicans have poured nearly $15 million into a race between GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn, an unprecedented sum for a state Trump won by 20 percentage points in 2024. Trump travels to Iowa on Thursday, where Republicans defend competitive races for governor and Senate.

Why This Matters: A party spending heavily to defend seats it has held for generations signals that kitchen-table economics are overriding partisan habit. Farm families aren’t abstractions here. They absorb fuel, fertilizer and seed costs they can’t control, in a trade environment shaped by tariffs and a war abroad. Federal aid and a diesel tax tweak offer some relief, but the USDA’s income forecast shows costs outrunning revenue. Immigration raids add strain to communities that depend on workers. Tester’s comparison to the 1980s farm crisis, when neighbors left town, shows what’s at stake: whether public policy protects the families who feed the country or leaves them to ride out the shocks alone.