Farm Costs Put Kansas GOP Senate Seat in Play

Diesel at $6.30 a gallon is doing what Democratic campaign ads couldn’t: putting a Senate seat Republicans have held for 94 years in play. President Donald Trump headlines a rally near Wichita on Monday, scheduled for 7 p.m. EDT, as GOP Sen. Roger Marshall defends his seat against Democrat Adam Hamilton.

The numbers behind the worry are hard to wave away. On Friday, diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide, more than 70% higher than a year earlier, according to motor club AAA. The surge hit during harvest, when farmers burn through fuel combining fields and hauling crops to town.

The Squeeze on Kansas Farms

Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation Kansas farmer, calls harvest “go time.” This year, he said, diesel costs more than $2.50 per gallon above last year’s price. “This is a time of year when we use a lot of fuel, and there just isn’t much we can do,” said Brunkow, who also serves as president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, which endorsed Marshall. “The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.”

The federal government’s own projections back him up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September forecast showed net farm income falling 2.6% this year while production expenses climb 4.5%. Fuel and oil costs alone were expected to jump nearly 30%. Farmers also face higher bills for fertilizer and seed amid refinery constraints and supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.

Brunkow stopped short of predicting a flood of farmers into the Democratic column. But he warned that economic frustration “dampens the enthusiasm for agriculture producers to get to the polls.” For a party counting on turnout, that’s a problem of its own.

Washington’s Response

The administration has tried to cushion the blow. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order easing limits on tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, which he said would save “millions” for farmers. A $12 billion aid package for farmers, announced in December, came before it. Brunkow said many farmers “thought it would be better” under Trump, though he acknowledged “unforced errors” and “miscalculations, bad advice, that had unintended consequences.”

That pattern—ad hoc aid to offset the costs of earlier policy choices—is drawing scrutiny from some Republicans. David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, said his group has monitored heavily agricultural states since summer. “Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs,” he said. “The economic environment has not been good.” His group is spending millions for GOP candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere.

Cracks in the Base

Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, said farmers understand Trump’s tariffs hurt their businesses and are upset about the ongoing Iran war. Recent immigration raids in western Kansas, which detained more than 100 people, added another worry. “We need a secure border — we can all agree on that,” Hineman said. “But we also need workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.”

Hineman said the old argument that electing Democrats would empower the party’s liberal wing has lost force, even for him. He said he’s “so fed up with the Republican Party and their willingness to play sycophant to our current commander in chief that I’m willing to consider alternatives.”

Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, remains undecided. She said she has never voted for a Democrat and finds that “a little scary.” Hamilton impressed her by visiting a local market, something she said she hadn’t seen Marshall do. Health care and everyday expenses weigh on her, as do trade agreements. “The Republicans haven’t done the Midwest any favors with that,” she said.

Beyond Kansas

The worry isn’t confined to one state. Trump travels to Iowa on Thursday, where Republicans defend competitive races for governor and Senate in a state he carried in three consecutive presidential elections. In Nebraska, Senate Republicans have poured nearly $15 million into a race between Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn. That’s an unprecedented sum for a state Trump won by 20 percentage points in 2024. In Kansas, he beat Kamala Harris by 16 points that year.

Democrats smell opportunity. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat who lost reelection in 2024, said there is “no doubt” Democrats will outperform expectations in farm states. A farmer since 1978, he compared today’s conditions to the farm crisis of the 1980s: “We’re setting up for the same kind of situation.”

Why This Matters:

A party spending $15 million to defend a Nebraska seat it won by 20 points signals a shift. Kansas shows how energy costs, tariffs and foreign conflict can strain even the most reliable Republican constituencies. Farm aid and diesel tax relief offer short-term cushions, but they’re government patches for costs that policy helped create; they don’t restore the export markets McIntosh says retaliatory tariffs have shrunk. The USDA’s projected decline in farm income suggests the pressure won’t ease soon.

For Republicans, the question is whether they can address rural voters’ concerns about trade and fuel costs before Election Day. A few thousand discouraged voters staying home could matter more than any rally for the Senate majority.