Farmers in Kenya invest in crops and livestock without knowing whether the weather will let them earn a return, and doctors say that uncertainty contributes to mental health concerns. Rain-dependent livelihoods leave people exposed to forces they can’t control: coffee farmer Josephine Kihu says prolonged sunshine forced her to change bean varieties and pay someone to water her trees.
“Before we never used to water our seedlings because the rain was good and it was enough but as from today,” Kihu said. A light shower offered little relief. “Let's see now you can see it's raining. Is it really raining? This is drizzling. It cannot help the tree. So it forces us to employ someone to water the coffee tree.” The farm still needs investment. The harvest is no sure thing.
The cost of an uncertain harvest
Kihu has worked on her coffee farm in Nyeri for three decades. Farmers put substantial money into their farms without knowing whether they’ll harvest anything, she said. “Can you imagine how much money, you have invested here? I have invested a lot and finally I don't harvest anything, I might die. As a farmer, you could go insane,” she said. She believes unpredictable weather affects farmers’ mental wellbeing, even when they may not recognise what’s causing their distress.
At Kiawara, Charles Ndung'u has kept livestock for more than two decades. Goat farming traditionally provided reliable income in the semi-arid area, but March rainfall didn’t produce enough pasture to sustain the animals through a prolonged dry spell. A livestock disease outbreak in June compounded the shortage. From July, some goats grew too weak to stand. Ndung'u said he lost 40 in three months.
The losses reach beyond the herd. “We depend on the goats for our children's school fees. You would sell one or two and send children to school. Without the goats and money, we have many problems,” Ndung'u said. His account links the weather and animal losses directly to families’ ability to pay for children’s schooling.
Stress without control
Early rainfall could wash away the small amount of dry feed the goats have survived on, while fresh pasture will take time to grow. The seeds are in the ground, Ndung'u said, but he doesn’t know whether they’ll sprout. “We are waiting to see if the rains continue. If they don't grow, that's more stress. We don't have money,” he said.
Kahindo Gacago, a clinical psychologist at Outspan Hospital in Nyeri, said climate-related challenges contribute to farmers’ mental-health concerns. He described “the cumulative losses and also the chronic stress that comes with always having to plan to know what to do at this time or when.” The strain deepens, he said, “Especially when you feel like you've lost control, because something like the weather it's not something in your control.” Gacago believes about a third of his patients are farmers experiencing mental health issues linked to repeated agricultural losses.
Support remains a policy question
Changing climatic conditions can also unsettle farmers’ sense of identity when they leave familiar practices, adopt different lifestyles or relocate in search of more promising conditions, Gacago said. Some may turn to alcohol or other substances to cope.
Gacago urged policymakers to include mental wellbeing in farmer support programmes, promote climate-smart agriculture and improve access to irrigation. The report identifies those responses but describes no grassroots mutual-aid or self-organized programme. For farmers facing another uncertain harvest, the immediate facts remain the investment, the losses and the wait for rain.