Trump Turns Midterms Into a Test of Personal Power

Donald Trump told supporters, “Just close your eyes, and pretend I'm on the ballot,” making his own power the centerpiece of Republican campaigns before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Across several states, campaigns are making late pushes. Polls show competitive Senate races, and both parties are sending their most prominent figures onto the rally circuit.

The stakes come down to control of a chamber: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to retake it, according to PBS NewsHour's coverage. In South Carolina, a New York Times/Siena University poll found Republican Darline Graham tied with Democrat Annie Andrews. Graham had been appointed to fill the seat of her late brother, Lindsey Graham. In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley by double digits, with affordability central to Cooper's campaign.

Power on the Rally Stage

Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico held rallies in Lubbock, Texas, on the same evening. Trump said Talarico “does not deserve it” and “doesn't represent your values,” then called him “Democrat communist James Talafreako.” Talarico told supporters, “On November 3, we are going to do something extraordinary. We are going to do something historic.” He thanked the 4,000 people who attended and joked, “That's a lot of Talafreakos in one room.” His opponent, State Attorney General Ken Paxton, called him “the most radical Democrat to ever run in Texas history.”

The Texas contest is for a Senate seat in a state that hadn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades. The rhetoric is loud. Yet voters are choosing among candidates for offices inside the same political machinery.

Pennsylvania voters offered sharply different views of that machinery. Linda Markle said, “The Republican Congress does not have a spine. They've abdicated their powers to one person, one person only. And that's not democracy.” John Tim Betts reached the opposite conclusion: “Probably President Trump. I mean, I'm sorry people don't like him, but I think he's doing more for us than anybody else has.”

Trump planned to rally in Ohio, returning to the state for the third time in a month, while former President Barack Obama planned to campaign in Georgia with Sen. Jon Ossoff and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Bottoms sought to become the first Black woman elected governor in the United States; Ossoff was running for reelection. Vice President JD Vance campaigned in North Carolina for Republicans. Whatley, a former national party chair, faced Cooper in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Money, Messaging, and the Cost of Living

Since Sept. 1, Trump's political groups had spent at least around $277 million to help Republicans. His super PAC, MAGA Inc., had $416 million at the start of the previous month. Trump also used taxpayer funding for television ads celebrating himself, including one nearly identical to a 2024 advertisement. At the previous month's first Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump spoke both nights, he appeared as a cowboy on horseback in a white Stetson and pledged, “I'll give you $5,000” if Republicans held Congress. Lawmakers would likely need to approve the proposal.

The cost of living remains a pressure point. An AP-NORC poll conducted in late September found that 17% of U.S. adults approved of Trump's handling of it. In a CNN/SSRS poll conducted in mid-October, about four in 10 registered voters said their congressional vote would be more about opposing Trump, while about two in 10 said it would send a message of support.

Cindy Downes, a 67-year-old retiree from North Liberty, Iowa, voted early for Rep. Ashley Hinson for U.S. Senate and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks for reelection. “The number one reason: POTUS supports them,” she said. “I trust him. I trust his judgment.” LuAnn Bird, 72, of Hales Corners, Wisconsin, said opposition to Trump was one reason she supported Democrats. “It just feels so good, not just to go against Trump, but to go for something,” she said after attending a Milwaukee rally with former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. “I want to see an aggressive, progressive agenda,” Bird said.

Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said Trump's focus on himself kept Republicans from attracting conservative voters disappointed in him. “He's literally driving people who disagree with him to the Democratic side,” Czuba said. “The dividing line is how voters feel about Donald Trump,” he added. “And there's a whole lot more voters who disapprove of Donald Trump than approve of Donald Trump.” EMILY's List president Jessica Mackler said Democrats welcomed Trump's rally presence. “I don't think there's anybody that wants Donald Trump out there at these rallies more than Democratic candidates,” she said, adding, “we look at that as a win.”

The State's Levers, and the Candidates' Claims

Trump also called for Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola to leave the race and be prosecuted after a New York Times report said her campaign was involved in an effort to recruit a second Dan Sullivan to run against Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, in an effort to confuse voters. Trump called it “voter fraud at the highest level” and said, “It turned out it was a scheme by the Democrats. That's what they do best: They cheat.” Separately, the Justice Department sued to block certification of Alaska's Senate results if Dan Sullivan lost narrowly, claiming a second candidate with the same name could confuse voters.

The Ohio contest offered another view of campaign power. Republican biotech executive Vivek Ramaswamy faced former public health official Amy Acton. An advertisement featuring Acton's mother, Donna Arthur, stirred controversy after Arthur called her daughter “a liar” who “needs help” because of “a serious problem” being honest about her past. Arthur hadn't seen Acton in nearly 50 years and lost custody of her children after her husband, Acton's stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton when she was 12. Acton said she hadn't seen her mother since 1978. Trump backed the advertisement; Husted and other Republicans distanced themselves from it.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” Ingle described the choice as “Doubling down on President Trump's winning, commonsense agenda, or the Democrats' extreme liberal policies and obstruction.” Trump put his own approach more plainly when speaking to the Washington Examiner: “I always cater to my base.”