Conservative populists are seizing power across Latin America, implementing strong-arm tactics against crime and immigration, a political shift that follows an earlier wave of progressive governments that had capitalized on public outrage over entrenched inequities exacerbated by the pandemic. This backlash occurs despite a broad decline in homicide rates across Latin America compared with a decade ago, though spikes in some countries and a regionwide rise in extortion have created conditions for conservative populists to gain votes.
Stump speeches casting migrants as criminals and pitching heavy-handed security strategies, popularized by El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, have secured U.S. President Donald Trump’s backing for conservative candidates. These tactics have mobilized disaffected electorates, despite concerns that such measures could encourage human rights abuses or threaten democracy. Enrique Roig, vice president of Human Rights First, stated that an emergent right wing is collaborating across the region and with the U.S. through the MAGA movement, which has used crime as a rallying cry for political mobilization. Roig added that it is easier to sell locking people up than to address the underlying reasons why mainly young men join gangs in countries like El Salvador.
The State as Enforcer
Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America, noted that only the right has offered short-term security solutions that promise voters to “feel safer in six months,” even if it means sacrificing democracy and human rights. Eduardo Moncada, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, observed that the prevailing sentiment is often that “democracy hasn’t been able to keep me and my family safe, so maybe democracy is part of the problem.”
In Colombia, where parts of the countryside have seen renewed conflict, pro-Trump businessman Abelardo de la Espriella has topped polls ahead of Sunday’s runoff election, drawing inspiration from Bukele. In Peru, where extortion has increased fivefold in the past five years, Keiko Fujimori advanced to a presidential runoff in the same month on a law-and-order platform. She vowed to deploy the military in prisons and along borders, leaning on the authoritarian legacy of her late father, former President Alberto Fujimori. Campaigning under the slogan “Peru with Order,” Keiko Fujimori secured the largest vote share in April’s first round of voting. The results of the June 7 runoff still showed her in a technical tie with nationalist Roberto Sánchez, the political heir of the imprisoned Castillo.
Even progressive figures like Jeannette Jara in Chile and Roberto Sánchez in Peru have adjusted their positions with the political tide. Uruguay’s president, Yamandú Orsi, a center-left leader, called Bukele’s model an example worthy of further study. The center-left Guatemalan government declared a state of emergency this year to crack down on gang violence and accepted assistance from the Trump administration to target drug traffickers.
Capital's Shifting Tides
Costa Ricans, facing record levels of drug-related killings, elected conservative populist Laura Fernández in February for her tough-on-crime platform. Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura won December’s election after receiving Trump’s endorsement as a partner in the fight against “narco-communists.” In Chile, fears over rising crime, frequently associated in media with the country’s growing population of Venezuelan immigrants, contributed to José Antonio Kast’s return to power in December. Kast, who drew inspiration from Bukele and toured his mega-prisons in El Salvador during his campaign, defeated his Communist opponent with pledges to construct a massive border wall, toughen prison conditions for gang members, and deport hundreds of thousands of migrants without legal status. Voters overlooked Kast’s opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage rights, as well as his defense of Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship, in exchange for his promises of safety.
As Venezuelan crime syndicates like the Tren de Aragua gang exploited their country’s mass migration wave to infiltrate human trafficking networks following the pandemic, Chile experienced an explosion of carjackings, kidnappings, and shoot-outs. Chile’s homicide rate rose by 30%, peaking at 6.7 per 100,000 people from 2021 to 2022, according to the Interior Ministry, marking the fifth year of the period. While it has since decreased, it remains above pre-2021 levels. Other violent crimes continue to rise, with kidnappings increasing by nearly 180% over the past four years.
The Illusion of Order
Latin America and the Caribbean saw their combined average homicide rate drop by more than 5% last year compared to 2024, with the median rate reaching about 17.6 per 100,000 people, according to InSight Crime. However, drug-fueled killings increased in Peru and Colombia, the world’s top cocaine producers, as well as in neighboring Ecuador, whose major ports are seen by traffickers as a gateway to European markets. Last year, authorities recorded 2,400 homicides in Peru and 14,780 in Colombia, the highest figures in each country since at least 2020. Killings in Ecuador rose 31% year-on-year, reaching 9,216. Ecuadorian authorities also documented over 16,100 cases of extortion last year. Gangs are blamed for much of the violence that escalated in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic, as cartels from Mexico, Colombia, and the Balkans expanded their operations and hired local labor, igniting deadly conflicts over drug-trafficking routes. Their territorial disputes extend to prisons, where hundreds of inmates have been killed since 2021.
Nearly three months into Kast’s tenure, pollsters reported that a skeptical public could not distinguish between his security crackdown and that of his left-wing predecessor. His government had organized only two deportation flights after promising to immediately round up and expel Chile’s more than 300,000 immigrants without legal status. A different, more cautious tone emerged in his speeches. Last month, he faced criticism for calling the mass deportation promise “a metaphor.” Even as he proposed new security measures in a June 1 address, including banning those convicted of attacking police from receiving social benefits, he attempted to temper his supporters’ high expectations. He stated, “Governing, as many of you know, means taking responsibility for reality, especially when it’s difficult. I’m proceeding step by step because this isn’t something that happens overnight.”