GOP Grip Frays as Latino Voters Face Rising Costs

Mayumi Castro Fernandez, an aircraft worker who voted for Donald Trump two years before the midterms, canvassed for a Democrat challenging an incumbent House Republican in Miami on Friday. She put the pressure plainly: “All the prices go up — the gas, the food, the health insurance.” By the end of the month, she said, families don’t “have all the money we need.”

Castro Fernandez canvassed with her union, which backed the Democrat. “We need a change. I change my mind. They can change it too,” she said. The response to rising costs and political disappointment is playing out on doorsteps, even as the contest remains framed around which party will control Congress.

The cost of decisions made at the top

The nation’s 36 million Latino voters have become a major group of swing voters, and shifting support could affect races in Texas and Florida, as well as California, Arizona, Colorado and Georgia. An NBC News/Telemundo poll released this month found Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress over Republican control by 24 points: 59% to 35%.

That shift comes with Republicans fully in control of the federal government. In interviews, Latino voters cited gas and food prices, GOP healthcare funding cuts and Trump’s aggressive mass deportation efforts as reasons for dissatisfaction. In the same poll, 27% of Latino voters approved of Trump’s overall job performance, while 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living.

Irma González, a restaurant owner in McAllen, Texas, described how immigration enforcement affects people beyond those directly targeted. “Immigration policy is very tough right now. That is precisely why the economy is so weak, with the raids and all that,” she said. “Many people simply don’t want to go out.” Her city sits across two competitive House districts. James Talarico, the Democratic state representative running against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, visited González’s shop, where she makes homemade tortillas. She said Talarico “genuinely wants to help us,” adding, “I hope he wins and does something good — something better.”

Karina Castillo, a Venezuelan American attorney in Doral, said she voted for Trump in 2024 partly because she thought he’d bring more order to immigration. She now regrets her vote and believes his policy has gone too far. Castillo said the administration jailed or deported “a lot of people” who were “doing things right,” including waiting for the legal immigration process. She also raised concerns about attempts to revoke birthright citizenship and Trump’s support for Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez. “You cannot be blindfolded. You need to see what’s going on,” she said.

The ballot box and its limits

Latino voters traditionally leaned Democratic in most of the country, then swung heavily toward Trump in the 2024 election. Exit polls found Trump received 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris. Economic frustration that helped Trump win now fuels dissatisfaction with Republicans.

Republican strategist Mike Madrid described voters moving against both parties. “They’re moving away from Republicans for the same reason they moved away from Democrats two years ago,” he said. Madrid calls the pattern “dealignment,” with large shares of Latino voters holding no party loyalty and voting against what they see as “failed government.” He added: “Neither party is providing a compelling vision or results-oriented policy for working-class people. We are in many ways witnessing an emergent Latino populism that is anti-establishment — meaning both parties.”

The November 3 midterms put that discontent back into an electoral contest. Democrats are targeting several traditionally Republican states as they seek a net gain of four seats to claim a Senate majority. In Texas, a Senate race that initially appeared to be a long shot has become a nail-biter. Latino support could also help Democrats retain House seats Republicans redrew in a mid-decade redistricting battle last year. In the Rio Grande Valley, Republicans drew the districts based on Trump’s strong 2024 performance. A shift toward Democrats could weaken Republican efforts to oust 28th District Rep. Henry Cuellar and 34th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; Democrat Bobby Pulido could also oust Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of the 15th District.

Florida’s electorate includes traditionally conservative Cubans around Miami, Puerto Ricans in Central Florida who swung toward Trump in 2024, and Venezuelans around Miami and Orlando. Many Venezuelans are angry that Trump ended temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals last year. A strong Democratic statewide showing could help the party flip Florida’s 27th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez.

Campaign promises meet the record

Salazar won the overwhelmingly Latino district by nearly 21 percentage points in 2024. Last month, she said in an advertisement directed at Trump that “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” warning that “the same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.” Rodriguez said Salazar’s record didn’t match the advertisement: she voted to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he said, and he criticized her past remarks defending conditions at Alligator Alcatraz after she toured the now-closed Florida detention facility.

“People are hurting. People don’t have money to pay rent. People don’t have money to buy groceries. Gas is out of control, and also this immigration policy of this administration is impacting this district,” Rodriguez said after campaigning with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. At a Miami steakhouse on Saturday morning, Salazar echoed Republican messaging that characterized the Democratic Party as socialist. “This ideology has nothing to do with us or with this nation,” she said.

Democratic strategist Tory Gavito said Latino voters had believed Trump’s 2024 pledge to “shake things up,” while many didn’t see themselves among the “bad hombres” he would target. Now, she said, “they don’t see prices getting lowered, they don’t see an increase in jobs, and many mixed-status families are living in fear.” Her assessment of the electoral mood was blunt: “I don’t think we’re in a blue wave. I think we’re in a red sinkhole.”