Latino Voters Sour on Trump as Prices Bite Before Midterms

Chris Martinez voted for Donald Trump, expecting a thriving economy and no wars. Now the 28-year-old maintenance technician in Casa Grande, Arizona, says he feels played. High gas prices forced him to return one of his vehicles to the lender. He’s switched his grocery shopping to a discount store. “He’s doing nothing for us, to benefit us,” Martinez said. “And it kind of sucks because I got duped and I feel like a dummy.”

Martinez isn’t alone. Latinos shifted toward Trump in 2024, helping return him to the White House with a Republican-controlled Congress. Many now are souring on the president and his party, a turn that could decide the balance of power in Washington in the Nov. 3 elections. The path to a U.S. House majority runs through heavily Latino districts in Arizona, Colorado and Texas.

Kitchen-Table Strain

The numbers back up what voters describe. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October found about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency. More than 7 in 10 disapprove of his performance on the economy. A September AP-NORC poll found Hispanic voters more concerned than voters overall about grocery and housing costs, and 70% blamed Trump’s policies, rather than factors outside his control, for higher prices.

That matters because food costs drove many of these voters in 2024. About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about grocery costs then, slightly more than the roughly two-thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast. Trump held a clear advantage among them.

Jose Montalvo, a 47-year-old trucker in Colorado, voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 and then for Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. He likes splitting his ticket. This year, he probably won’t, after changing insurers and cellphone providers to save money. “I blame him for the fuel side of things,” Montalvo said of Trump, a criticism he extends to all Republicans.

Maria del Carmen Rojas, a naturalized citizen who has lived in the United States for 36 years, said she was shocked that any Latinos could back Trump and a modern Republican Party she believes regularly denigrates immigrants. She has four U.S.-citizen children, including a son who served in Afghanistan. She’s worked in factories and as a nanny, and now struggles to buy groceries. “We Latinos contribute very much to this country, the taxes we pay, the service we provide,” she said.

Battleground Districts

Casa Grande, a town of 70,000 between Phoenix and Tucson, sits in the northern tip of Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, historically one of the country’s most closely matched. Republican Juan Ciscomani, seeking a third term, won by 2.5 percentage points two years ago while Trump carried the district by less than 1 point. Ciscomani is subtly distancing himself from the president without criticizing him or his policies. “I’m not a rubber stamp for anyone,” he says in an advertisement. His Democratic opponent, JoAnna Mendoza, a former Marine, stresses her upbringing as the daughter of immigrant farmworkers who worked fields near Casa Grande.

In Colorado’s 8th District, Democratic state lawmaker Manny Rutinel showed a crowd of union carpenters a scar from selling his blood more than 100 times to make ends meet. “I’m the son of a single mom,” he told them. “The folks around the district feel they’ve been lied to and betrayed,” he said later. Evans, a former police lieutenant, calls Rutinel a left-wing activist and says Hispanic voters want a secure border. Evans won by less than 1 point; Trump won by 2.

In Texas’ 15th District, which Trump carried by 18 points and which is now a top battleground, voters are split. Maria Elsa Gonzalez will again back Republican Rep. Monica de la Cruz over Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star. Teacher Priscilla Olivarez, 46, is undecided. She says costs seem to rise faster than wages, and she often uses her own money to pay for classroom needs. “I stand independent right now because I don’t agree with either side right now,” she said.

Dealignment, Not Conversion

Democrats shouldn’t assume the shift is theirs. Mike Madrid, a political consultant and author of “The Latino Century,” said any move away from Republicans would be driven by anti-Trump sentiment, not support for Democrats. He described Latinos as undergoing “dealignment,” rejecting strong ties to either party because neither effectively addresses working-class economic concerns. Hispanic voters were about evenly split on the Democratic Party in the October poll, while 55% viewed the Republican Party unfavorably and 38% favorably.

Some voters remain firmly Republican. Chris Durant, 61, who will probably vote that way again, said, “We really don’t worry about gas and prices and what not.” Thomas Centrella, 42, in Edinburg, Texas, has grown disillusioned and may skip elections or become an independent.

Why This Matters:

The voters in these stories aren’t abstractions. They’re people returning vehicles, trading down at the grocery store and dipping into their own pockets to cover classroom supplies. When 70% of Hispanic voters in one poll blame federal policy for higher prices, that’s a judgment about who’s responsible for working families’ costs, and it lands weeks before a midterm that could reshape Congress. It also tests whether Democrats can turn frustration into trust. Madrid’s warning is plain: these voters are becoming economic, class-based voters, and the party that answers their pocketbook concerns first stands to gain. Whether either party does, and whether disillusioned voters show up at all, will help determine who holds power in Washington.