Latino Voters Sour on Prices, Putting House Seats at Risk

Chris Martinez, a 28-year-old maintenance technician in Casa Grande, Arizona, returned one of his vehicles to the lender because gas prices were too high. Now he buys groceries at a discount store. He voted for Donald Trump expecting a thriving economy and no wars. He says he got neither.

"He's doing nothing for us, to benefit us," Martinez said. "And it kind of sucks because I got duped and I feel like a dummy." He added that the United States has spent months in conflict with Iran. "I went right for a while, but I'm back to the middle," he said. He isn't sure he'll vote in the midterms.

His frustration comes down to the pocketbook, and it carries weight in Washington. Latino voters shifted toward Trump in 2024, helping return him to the White House alongside a Republican-controlled Congress. Many are now souring on the president and his party. That shift could shape the balance of power in the Nov. 3 elections.

The Numbers Behind the Mood

The polling is blunt. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October found about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency, while more than 7 in 10 disapprove of his performance on the economy. A September AP-NORC poll found Hispanic voters more concerned than voters overall about grocery and housing costs. Seventy percent blamed Trump's policies, rather than factors outside his control, for higher prices.

The Republican Party's standing is weak. In the October poll, 55% of Hispanic voters had an unfavorable view of it and 38% a favorable one. Democrats shouldn't pop the champagne. Hispanic voters were about evenly split in their view of the Democratic Party.

Mike Madrid, a political consultant who wrote "The Latino Century," said any shift away from Republicans this year would come from anti-Trump sentiment, not support for Democrats. He described Latinos as undergoing "dealignment," rejecting strong ties to either party because neither effectively addresses working-class economic concerns. "The Latino electorate is moving from a racial-and-ethnic voting bloc to an economic, pocketbook, class-based voter," Madrid said. "And the party that figures that out first is the party that will probably dominate for the next generation."

Battleground Districts

The path to a U.S. House majority runs through heavily Latino districts in Arizona, Colorado and Texas, where Democrats are counting on disaffected Trump supporters to come home. It's unclear whether they've persuaded voters who feel no strong allegiance to either party.

In Arizona's 6th Congressional District, historically one of the country's closest contests, Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term. Two years ago, he won by 2.5 percentage points, while Trump won by less than 1 point. Ciscomani, born in Mexico and brought to the United States as a child, is subtly distancing himself from the president without directly criticizing him or his policies. "I'm not a rubber stamp for anyone," he says in an advertisement. His Democratic opponent, JoAnna Mendoza, a former Marine, stresses her upbringing as the daughter of immigrant farmworkers who worked fields near Casa Grande.

Not every voter there is rattled. Chris Durant, 61, has voted Republican in recent elections and will probably do so again. "We really don't worry about gas and prices and what not," he said.

In Colorado's 8th District, which stretches across blue-collar Denver suburbs and energy-rich farmland and ranchland, Republican Rep. Gabe Evans won by less than 1 percentage point while Trump won by 2. Both candidates are Hispanic. Democrat Manny Rutinel says voters "feel they've been lied to and betrayed." Evans, a 40-year-old former police lieutenant whose grandfather was a Mexican immigrant, calls Rutinel a left-wing activist and liberal lawmaker. "Go ask any Hispanic in the district, do you think we should secure the border? Do you think we should get rid of the bad guys? Do you think we should help the good guys? They'll say yes," Evans said.

Jose Montalvo, a 47-year-old trucker, voted for Evans after backing Kamala Harris in 2024. He usually splits his ticket, but he doesn't expect to do so this year after switching insurers and cellphone providers to save money. "I blame him for the fuel side of things," he said of Trump, extending that criticism to all Republicans.

Texas Holds Firm, With Cracks

In Edinburg, Texas, in the 15th District, which Trump carried by 18 percentage points and which is now a top battleground, loyalty is tested but not broken. Retired resident Maria Elsa Gonzalez said she'll again back Republican Rep. Monica de la Cruz over Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star. Speaking in Spanish, she said Pulido "doesn't have any preparation other than a pretty face and the fame of singing pretty."

Others are drifting. Thomas Centrella, 42, tends to vote Republican but might skip elections or become independent. Speaking of Trump's first term, he said, "I feel like he was going in a good direction, but I think now that it's just gotten weird." Priscilla Olivarez, 46, a public education teacher, is undecided. She is disappointed by an economy where costs seem to rise faster than wages, and she often uses her own money for classroom needs. "I stand independent right now because I don't agree with either side right now," she said.

Why This Matters:

The warning for Republicans is about delivery, not ideology. These voters aren't asking for bigger government. They're asking why gas, groceries and housing cost more, and the polling shows most blame the White House's policies. Voters who switched insurers and cellphone providers to save money are acting like the disciplined consumers free-market advocates say they are. The party that earns credit for lower costs, not louder messaging, stands to gain. The dealignment Madrid describes cuts both ways. Democrats haven't locked in these voters, and Republicans haven't kept them. With House control running through a handful of closely matched, heavily Latino districts, a few thousand unmotivated or undecided voters could decide the majority.