50 Leaders, One Dinner, and a Joint Migration Declaration

More than 50 leaders and their delegations are descending on Dublin today for the European Political Community summit, and two European diplomats say they'll sign off on a joint declaration on migration before the evening is out. Nobody has said what's in it. Nobody has said who gets to read it before it's final. The day closes with a dinner at the National Gallery of Ireland.

The EPC was set up in 2022 on French President Emmanuel Macron's initiative, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is its fourth year. Its members are all EU countries plus the main EU institutions and around 20 others, including the U.K., Turkey and Ukraine. Two meetings a year, one in an EU capital, one in a non-EU capital. The summit is co-chaired by European Council President António Costa and Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte among those attending. Arrivals begin at 11 a.m., the opening plenary at 12:30 p.m., a press conference around 6:45 p.m.

The Schedule of the Powerful

The joint plenary will focus on Ukraine and European security. Then the leaders split into roundtables: one on competitiveness, AI, digital and energy transitions and bringing down energy prices; another on defending European democracy. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Macron will co-chair a meeting of the coalition against drug trafficking. Macron also wants to launch an initiative to define the key principles for the future of European security, and a paper may be produced, according to POLITICO's Berlin Playbook.

Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin said the EPC lets European leaders "to come together to advance the security, stability and prosperity of our continent." He added that it was established "to bring more coherence to challenges we face across our continent." The word "migration" appears nowhere in that sentence. It appears in a declaration that two diplomats described to reporters.

A Talking Shop Even Its Members Are Tired Of

POLITICO's Brussels Playbook reports that some leaders have soured on the forum. Diplomats and officials say some hope it will die when France gets a new president next year. A European diplomat said leaders are weary of the gathering, one reason capitals weren't ecstatic about Ursula von der Leyen's proposal to form a European Security Council. Another diplomat said they hope the EPC won't survive Macron's departure after the French presidential runoff in May.

The Elysée disputes this. One official said the EPC has become a diplomatic cornerstone and will be here to stay in the post-Macron era. An EU official said it has proven its worth. Summits are scheduled through the end of 2028, with meetings in Switzerland, Greece, Azerbaijan and Latvia. Even Fabrice Leggeri, an MEP with Marine Le Pen's National Rally, conceded the EPC is not "automatically a waste of time," while acknowledging there are plenty of "boring, useless, endless meetings" at EU level.

Who Speaks for Europe

The central question, per the base reporting, is who speaks for Europe. Zelensky said: "I think that we must decide, at the latest in November, who will represent Europe in the negotiations." Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told AFP that Europe already has its people: Costa and Kallas. Merz prefers the current E3 format, Germany, France and Britain, plus Italy, which took part "at the express request of both Ukraine and the US." He noted Europe didn't have a single negotiator in the Iran deal.

Meanwhile, Merz is flying in to hold bilaterals, including with Macron, on the EU's seven-year, €2 trillion budget. The ECB presidency race is also expected to come up. Merz is tying commitments on Ukraine aid to strict demands on the budget, drawing criticism from Slovak head of government Robert Fico. The informal European Council on Friday will take up the latest dispute over further Ukraine aid and hold the first major discussion on AI. Finland and Estonia want an EU-wide system to respond to serious AI incidents, according to a letter seen by POLITICO.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez are skipping Dublin, the first two facing political turmoil at home, Sánchez a couple of weeks out from an election. Enlargement isn't on the menu, though a senior diplomat from a candidate country predicted it will come up on the margins.

Fifty-odd leaders, security guarantees, a €2 trillion budget, and a migration declaration drafted where the people it concerns can't see it. The dinner is at the National Gallery.