U.S. Tariff Power Outlasts Midterm Vote on Mexico

The 10% U.S. duty on Mexican goods that don't qualify under the USMCA remained in place after the November 3 midterm elections. That left tariff power largely where it had been: with the president and his trade office. News organizations projected that Democrats had won both chambers of Congress, but official results were still pending from state election offices. A changed balance in Congress hasn't changed the rules governing Mexico's goods.

Who Holds the Tariff Switch

Since July 24, the United States has charged a 10% duty on Mexican goods that don't qualify under the USMCA, the trade pact among Mexico, the United States and Canada. The U.S. Trade Representative imposed duties on 60 economies under Section 301, a U.S. trade-law tool. Mexico, Canada and 15 other partners face the 10% rate; other economies face 12.5%.

Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the new U.S. duty represented the same treatment Mexico had received before, with only its legal basis changed. The shift, he said, didn't alter Mexico's position in the USMCA review. More than 80% of Mexican exports to the United States qualify under the agreement and are exempt from the new duty, according to Mexico's Economy Ministry. Separate U.S. duties on Mexican steel, aluminum, cars and trucks remained in force.

Congress writes trade laws, but the president and his trade office hold the powers behind Section 301 duties. A Democratic House could hold hearings and use spending bills to question tariffs; it couldn't remove the duties alone. The Senate and president would also have to agree. Reported seat counts weren't included because they didn't yet agree. The election changed Congress's prospective lineup, not the machinery keeping tariffs in place.

Trade Talks, With the Pressure Still On

The USMCA review is a joint check of the pact by Mexico, the United States and Canada. A fourth negotiating round on steel, aluminum and other strategic sectors had been scheduled for September. The Rio Times said it didn't know how the next round would address the 10% duty, or whether the new Congress would pursue tariff limits.

Mexico is seeking a reduction, or complete elimination, of U.S. tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminum and vehicles. In July, the Trump administration said it had decided against renewing the USMCA free-trade pact for an additional 16 years, through 2042. The agreement remains in effect and is subject to annual reviews. Sheinbaum and Trump said the previous month that Mexico and the United States were “very close” to a trade deal, but Washington and Ottawa would also need to resolve trade differences. The U.S. government has raised concerns about trade deficits, energy policy and China.

Integralia Consultores said the midterms “will modify counterweights on Trump, but won't necessarily reduce pressure on Mexico.” It said a Democratic majority in one or both chambers could bring more investigations and oversight of the executive branch, while the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime could bring new demands on Mexico. Trump would retain broad authority over tariffs and could push for stricter regional-content requirements, the consultancy said. Republican defeats in states affected by tariffs could also increase pressure within the party to moderate some trade measures and avoid political costs before the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

Security and Migration as Leverage

Integralia said a Trump facing greater constraints could make more demands for Mexican “cooperation, extraditions and actions against criminal organizations.” It added that “New threats of unilateral [U.S.] actions [in Mexico] can't be ruled out.” Mexico's government works closely with the Trump administration on security but opposes U.S. action on Mexican soil. President Claudia Sheinbaum has denounced the Central Intelligence Agency's alleged participation in an unauthorized or undisclosed drug-lab raid in Chihuahua in April.

Since Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, security authorities have arrested more than 70,000 people for allegedly committing high-impact crimes, seized over 36,000 firearms and almost 570 tonnes of narcotics, and dismantled close to 2,800 clandestine drug laboratories. Homicides declined in every state in the first nine months of 2026. The Trump administration kept pressing Mexico to do more against drug trafficking, and Trump periodically threatened unilateral military action against cartels in Mexico.

Immigration would remain a Trump priority regardless of Congress's makeup, Integralia said. Democratic control could increase oversight of deportations, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and migrant treatment, while Mexico would continue to face pressure to contain migration and receive deportees. Mexico has filed complaints with U.S. prosecutors over deaths of Mexican citizens in ICE custody or during ICE operations. Eighteen Mexicans had died in ICE custody or operations during Trump's second term, including Emiliano Andrade Covarrubias, who died at the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas, after allegedly being denied medication needed to control health problems including diabetes.

Sheinbaum has repeatedly opposed Trump's deportation agenda. “If there is a person who committed a crime, he or she must be pursued. But migration in itself shouldn't be criminalized,” she said on July 16. No grassroots or community-led response appears in the reporting. The Rio Times said duties on Mexican goods affect jobs and prices, and advised firms to check products' origin status before shipping: qualifying goods face no new duty, while non-qualifying goods remain subject to 10%.