Billionaires Bankroll a Midterm Built Around Power

The top 20 megadonors supplied roughly $2 billion to federal races in this election cycle, as candidates made their final appeals before Election Day on Nov. 3. Elon Musk’s disclosed political contributions since Jan. 1, 2025, totaled $474 million, an estimate based on campaign-finance records that likely undercounts his spending.

On the ground, a nonprofit coalition organized by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law fielded a hotline receiving hundreds of voting-related calls a day. In Cleveland, Air Force veteran Brandon Waithe organized a public-plaza line-dancing event through Project HALO to encourage people to vote and “tie some positive emotion to the act of voting.” “There’s no pressure,” Waithe said. “We’re not telling you which party to vote for or which candidate.”

Campaigns at the top

President Donald Trump was scheduled to deliver his closing midterm pitch at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday, Nov. 2, after rallies in Iowa and Kansas. He told reporters he wanted to speak there to “show how beautiful it is.” The White House announced the afternoon speech as Trump’s administration-led renovation of the site faced criticism for being slow, expensive and problem-plagued.

Trump had held more than 25 rallies in the previous month, mostly in conservative areas, as Republicans sought to retain control of Congress amid low approval ratings and polling that pointed to possible Democratic gains. Hundreds of people began leaving midway through his nearly 90-minute Kansas speech on Sunday. At the start of a two-hour speech in Iowa, he said, “We’re going to elect ‘America first’ Republicans up and down the line.”

The races remain uncertain. A New York Times and Siena University poll released Sunday showed Democratic Senate candidates leading Republican rivals in seven major battleground states. Democrats appeared well positioned to win the House, while the Senate contest remained tight and some outcomes could take days to verify. The Los Angeles Times reported Democrats several points ahead on the generic ballot, with seven House seats rated toss-ups.

But the electoral contest runs through a lopsided cash machine. Musk’s disclosed contributions included about $216 million to America PAC and $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. His direct donations or disclosed America PAC spending included about $212 million supporting Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton; the total excluded most of America PAC’s Texas spending. The Times reported his total Texas spending at about $224 million after including $12.3 million given to Texas political groups.

Money, maps and the cost below

In the 11 Senate races CNN ranked as most likely to flip, Republicans spent $560 million on advertising in the final month, compared with $521 million for Democrats. Republican-led state legislatures also redrew congressional districts to improve their party’s chances. Nonpartisan projections nevertheless heavily favored Democrats to win the House, while CNN’s analysis said mid-decade Republican redistricting could produce as many as nine additional Republican House seats.

The campaigns attached everyday costs to their appeals. Voters raised concerns about gas, diesel, fertilizer, housing and other expenses. Democrats argued that Republican incumbents were enriching themselves while ordinary Americans struggled to make ends meet. In Kansas, reporting on lawsuits Sen. Roger Marshall filed against hundreds of former patients over unpaid bills, with some arrested, became a campaign flashpoint. In Texas, high diesel prices and Trump’s tariffs affected farmers and ranchers.

The policy stakes extend beyond campaign ads. Trump’s 2025 tax and spending law was projected to cut federal Medicaid spending by $911 billion through 2034, based on a KFF analysis of Congressional Budget Office estimates. New Medicaid work requirements were due to start Jan. 1 or earlier in some states. A Democratic-controlled chamber could not repeal the law alone, but could seek funding changes or delays in budget talks. KFF said fewer insured patients could increase uncompensated hospital care and state budget pressure could reduce reimbursement.

Corporate money also reaches into the races themselves. Republicans had a financial advantage, and Musk’s disclosed contributions included $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. In Texas, GOP groups spent more than $278 million on ads after Paxton won the primary, including $168 million from Musk. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan prompted her top aide to quit. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed said he was focused on voters’ concerns, including the cost of living.

A vote, and the machinery around it

Voting-rights activists said they feared the administration could deploy federal agents or seize ballots in close races. Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of Fair Fight Action, said, “We are up against a desperate president who’s throwing the kitchen sink of lies and tactics and propaganda to try to scare voters.” The article reported those fears; it did not report that federal agents had been deployed or ballots seized.

The campaign’s final forecasts offer no escape from uncertainty. A Democratic Senate win would require a “massive” wave, said Thaddeus Kousser, a UC San Diego political science professor. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said a slightly better night for either party could decide several close seats. “You’re going to have to buckle up and wait,” Kousser said.

Among the institutions competing for control are the parties, elected officials, major donors and the companies watching for policy changes. A Democratic win in either chamber could bring new committee gavels and subpoena power, while Trump would retain his veto and broad authority over tariffs, immigration and federal regulation. The line-dancing event offered a smaller, self-organized invitation to participate. The campaign’s biggest megadonors supplied billions.