Israel's Deadlock Leaves Power Brokers Bargaining

Exit polls left Israel’s two main blocs tied, with neither close to the 61 seats needed to control the 120-seat Knesset. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and rival Gadi Eisenkot both claimed the public had given them a path to lead, but neither claimed victory. The machinery of government is still up for grabs; the people who cast the ballots are waiting on coalition arithmetic.

A Mandate Claimed, Not Won

Kan 11 and Channel 13 put the blocs at 51-51. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc a 52-49 edge. Those projections could change as votes are counted, and final results were expected on Thursday or Friday.

Netanyahu called for “a strong, right-wing national government.” Eisenkot said voters had rejected Netanyahu remaining prime minister and urged him to retire from politics. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, called the exit polls a major defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition, while cautioning that Eisenkot had not emerged as a clear winner.

The deadlock could leave Netanyahu in office as caretaker prime minister during prolonged coalition negotiations, or until another election. Past negotiations have lasted weeks or months. If neither bloc can form a government, another vote may be needed; Eisenkot opposed that prospect despite the high turnout.

Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the Central Elections Committee said, about 7 percentage points higher than in 2022. The rules still send the result back through party blocs and coalition bargaining. Smaller parties may become kingmakers, even when neither of the main contenders can claim a majority.

Far-right religious parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to take a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu’s bloc, without major gains. Arab parties outside the two main blocs could hold the balance of power. Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and a former military chief, has all but ruled out forming a government with them, complicating his route to power.

Security as Campaign Currency

Netanyahu highlighted Israel’s military successes while addressing party faithful at Likud election headquarters in Jerusalem. He raised the prospect of renewed joint action with U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran. “Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission,” he said.

Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel’s security for political purposes. “Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people’s trust,” he said, calling on the security establishment to “stand firm” against political interests taking priority over security. Both men argued over who could be trusted with the state’s security apparatus.

Eisenkot presents himself as a domestic centrist and emphasizes his security credentials, but he opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas’ military wing must be destroyed or dismantled. He called Israel’s response a failure because Hamas remains in charge. The war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

The election also followed the attack the report described as Israel’s deadliest day: Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage. Netanyahu faced criticism over the country’s biggest security failure, while arguing that killing top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran had made Israel and the world safer.

The Ballots and the Boundaries

At the Joint List headquarters in Nazareth, whistles and applause greeted the exit polls during a historic night for turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. “We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” said Faten Gattas, a Joint List candidate. Candidates hoped high Arab turnout would give their alliance a decisive role in preventing Netanyahu’s coalition from returning to power. Yet Eisenkot’s refusal to form a government with Arab parties narrows that opening.

Netanyahu’s coalition policies have divided Israelis at home and deepened Israel’s international isolation. He has served as prime minister for nearly 19 of the past 30 years and repeatedly survived political crises. His opponents have taken the premiership from him only once since 2009, after four inconclusive elections in two years; he returned to office 18 months later.

Netanyahu entered this election facing long-standing corruption charges, which he denies, and criticism over intelligence failures that allowed Hamas-led militants to carry out their attack. The vote has produced no clear winner. For now, the competing claims remain claims, while parties negotiate over who gets to govern.