Forecast Puts Congressional Power Within Democrats’ Reach

Harvard University's updated election model gives Democrats a 96 percent chance of winning the House and a 78 percent chance of taking the Senate. Control of Congress—the machinery both parties are fighting to command—sits at the heart of Election Day. The forecast projects 242 Democratic House seats and 53 Senate seats.

The Numbers Behind the Power Grab

Democrats need 218 seats for a House majority, the model says. It rates 186 seats safe for Democrats, 36 likely Democratic, nine leaning Democratic and 10 toss-ups. The model calls a Republican House victory “as likely as rolling a 20 on a twenty-sided die.”

Researchers put that long shot in historical terms: “Our forecast expects the underdog to win with these odds once in about 26 elections. The last time an underdog won with similar odds was 1952.” The forecast maps the contest for institutional control; it doesn't report votes already counted.

A Senate majority requires 51 seats. Seven of the 35 Senate races happening this year rate as competitive. Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska fall into the Lean Democrat category; South Carolina and Nebraska are Lean Republican. Iowa is a toss-up.

The forecast doesn't treat certainty as magic. It lays out five predictability scenarios: polls being correct, normal polling error favoring either party, and historic polling error favoring either party. “Since 1950, the median polling error is 2 points in either direction, and 3 of the 19 midterms have had an error within 0.5 points,” the forecast says.

The Contest Beyond One Model

Harvard's projections aren't the only numbers shifting the expected balance of power. On Monday, the Cook Political Report moved Michigan's Senate race from a toss-up to lean Democratic. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democratic victories in Texas, Alaska and Maine, results that could put Democrats in a strong position to reclaim the Senate.

Political analyst Nate Silver predicted a “blue tsunami” is on the horizon. That's a forecast, not an outcome. Voters still have to decide the congressional balance, while the political apparatus waits; the figures here describe competing expectations about who will hold those seats.

President Trump's political capital was on the line on Election Day as Democrats eyed a potential blue wave and Republicans defended their congressional majorities. Trump campaigned across the country in recent months, holding 28 in-person rallies in addition to telerallies. He visited Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska, as well as Mississippi and South Carolina, which the article describes as deep-red states where polls had shown unexpectedly competitive races.

The Ballot and the Apparatus

Trump planned to take part in an election night viewing reception as voters went to the polls to decide the balance of power in Congress next year. The forecast's central question is which party will hold the seats; its terms are majorities, competitive races and control of the chamber. The account mentions no grassroots organizing, mutual aid or direct action. It describes an electoral contest, with power measured in seats and exercised through Congress.

The article also reports that the U.S. military targeted radar detectors and missile launchers on Qeshm Island as the Trump administration weighed renewing strikes on Iran after the midterms. That military action sits alongside the campaign coverage: one account of a fight over congressional control, another of state force abroad. The forecast tells readers which party appears favored to command the chambers. It doesn't change the contest over who occupies the existing institutions.