Oil Boom Puts State and Corporate Power in the Driver’s Seat

ProInversión will decide how Petroperú uses its US$475 million bridge loan, including how much goes to fuel and crude, financial obligations and overdue supplier debts. The financing gives an agency control over money intended to support operations and fuel supply. In July, oil workers’ federation Fenpetrol opposed ProInversión’s role and called for its removal.

Adrian Lara, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said of Argentina’s Vaca Muerta: “there's always been an expectation that Vaca Muerta would deliver more than it has.” Operators, he said, continue to question the stability of Javier Milei’s reforms as they consider long-term investments. Oil output is rising across the region, but projects depend on large companies, state agencies, export routes and political decisions made far from many of the people affected.

Who Controls the Oil Money

ProInversión’s allocation of Petroperú’s loan assigns 57%, or US$270.75 million, to crude and fuel; 30%, or US$142.5 million, to financial obligations; and 13%, or US$61.75 million, to overdue supplier debts. The parties concluded the financing in early September, within a legal limit of up to US$500 million. The lenders, interest rate, maturity and repayment date weren’t stated.

Petroperú’s New Talara Refinery in Piura processes about 60,000 barrels a day. ProInversión and Petroperú aim to raise that figure to 82,000 barrels a day in the medium term and reach self-sustainability by 2032. The loan runs through a subsidiary under a separate cash account, or trust, with ProInversión technical supervision. The agency said the arrangement doesn’t use Treasury resources.

At a September 30 Energy and Mines Committee session, Petroperú board chairman Oliver Stark described a wider operation of up to US$2 billion from international banks. Project director Ángel Delgado said the reorganisation combines international capital, operating efficiency and organisational modernisation. Delgado ruled out full privatisation: strategic assets would stay with Petroperú and the Peruvian state, while private partners could manage assets under operation and management contracts.

The company reaches beyond the refinery. On October 20, ProInversión called a second public auction for 10 non-strategic properties worth about US$25 million. The agency also said two crude supply contracts won in an Ecuadorian tender could save up to US$180 million a year.

The Companies Take the Fields

Guyana produced about 902,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2026. ExxonMobil operates the Stabroek offshore block with a 45% stake; Chevron holds 30%, and China’s CNOOC holds 25%. Stabroek passed 1 billion barrels produced in September. Installed capacity is expected to reach about 1.7 million barrels a day by 2030, a capacity figure rather than a forecast of actual output. Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund was paying about 32% of the 2026 budget.

In Suriname, TotalEnergies and APA Corporation each hold 40% of the GranMorgu project, while state company Staatsolie holds 20%. The companies made the final investment decision in October 2024, committing about $10.5 billion. First oil is expected in the first half of 2028. The International Monetary Fund said in January that fiscal slippages in 2025 had eroded earlier progress toward stability.

Argentina’s crude production reached a reported record 973,700 barrels a day in September. Neuquén province produced 714,089 barrels a day, including 697,595 from Vaca Muerta. The Vaca Muerta Sur export pipeline was about 80% complete in July, with first exports expected in early 2027. Chevron has applied under RIGI for a US$13.8 billion development at El Trapial; it also holds 50% of the Loma Campana and Narambuena concessions with state oil company YPF.

Brazil’s ANP reported August oil production of 4.615 million barrels a day, up 18.4% from a year earlier. Oil and gas combined reached 6.002 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, the first time above 6 million. China bought 54% of Brazil’s crude exports in the first half of 2026.

Political Promises, Material Limits

In Venezuela, U.S. forces captured Maduro on January 3, 2026; Delcy Rodríguez is acting president, and Washington recognized her on March 5. A hydrocarbons law reform passed on January 29, with no election date set. U.S. licenses let established American companies trade and invest, but authorities can revoke them at any time. Chevron plans to invest more than $7 billion over five years, aiming to raise its output to about 600,000 barrels a day.

Colombia’s president, Abelardo de la Espriella, won the June 21 runoff with 49.65% of the vote on the preliminary count and took office on August 7. He pledged to revive oil and gas, expand exploration and allow fracking under strict technical and environmental standards. No licensing round or fracking timetable has been announced. August output was about 733,000 barrels a day, down 2.3% from a year earlier, and community opposition to fracking constrains his plans.

The proposed Puerto Coronel route would carry machinery, equipment and supplies from Asia through Chile to Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin. The plan became public October 26, but no import volumes, customers, investment amounts, costs or timetable have been published. Oil may move across borders on corporate plans and state permissions. The source reports no comparable mutual-aid or community-controlled energy response.