Arab Votes Hold Leverage in Israel's Government Fight

With 85.6 percent of votes counted, the opposition was projected to hold 67 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, including 19 for Arab parties, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition was projected to win 53. The arithmetic puts Arab lawmakers at the center of negotiations over who will wield government power—and whether they’ll be treated as partners or kept outside the room.

The Coalition Bargain

Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc was projected to win 48 seats and would need support from both Arab parties to form a government. Eisenkot, a former military chief, has resisted allying with them. His camp also includes right-wingers who share many of Netanyahu’s hawkish views and have adamantly rejected working with Arab lawmakers.

Arab politician Ahmad Tibi said the opposition could form a government “if it wants to, if it is brave enough to.” Yair Golan, head of Israel’s main left-wing party and a member of Eisenkot’s camp, became the first in the camp to call for an alliance with the Arab lists. “We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” Golan said in a social media post.

The alternative under discussion is a minority government: Arab lawmakers could support Eisenkot in parliamentary votes on an ad hoc basis without joining a coalition. Few observers believe such an arrangement would last long. The negotiations may decide who holds office, but Arab parties’ support is already being weighed against the exclusions that shaped the campaign.

Yousef Jabareen, head of the leftist Arab-majority Joint List, said the public had voted for new leadership and that anyone offering a “substantive and genuine alternative” to Netanyahu’s government “will have to talk to us.” He described the choice as “the continuation of racism, the continuation of exclusion and the continuation of supremacy, or a genuine Jewish-Arab partnership.”

Votes, Power and the War

Netanyahu repeatedly attacked the opposition during the campaign, saying it would put Arabs in power and using the slogan, “Either the Right or Palestine.” Voters from the Arab community, descendants of Palestinians who stayed after Israel’s creation and about 20 percent of the population, have been angered by the government’s ultra-nationalist Jewish vision for the country and the Palestinian territories.

Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc was slightly ahead but short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. The Likud won 26 seats; the Joint List and Together won 12 seats each; the Democrats won eight; and Yisrael Beiteinu, Ra’am, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each won seven. Religious Zionism and Identity won six seats each. Final results could still change.

President Isaac Herzog, tasked with determining which candidate to tap to form a government, urged parties to keep “an open mind.” “We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections,” he said. Without a clear majority, coalition negotiations could last weeks, another election is possible, and Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

The election was the first since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that led Israel to wage war in Gaza and across the region. In Gaza, displaced resident Huda Al-Houli told AFP: “Our fear is that these elections might result in the emergence of an even worse leader and those who are more violent and bloodthirsty.” Her fear sits outside the seat count, though the government formed from it will hold power over the decisions she is describing.

Security as Political Currency

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot indicated that a possible Israeli attack alongside the United States on Iran was another factor in the election. Netanyahu ordered bombing campaigns against Iran last year and earlier this year, then stopped after President Donald Trump reached a ceasefire described as now moribund. In the days before the vote, Netanyahu repeatedly called for the overthrow of Iran’s government. News reports said military top brass pushed back on his plans for action before the election; Netanyahu denied those reports.

At a rally, Netanyahu said Israel had a “unique opportunity” with Trump to “forever eliminate the existential threat of Iran.” After the election, Eisenkot told Israel’s security chiefs they must serve the national interest, not Netanyahu’s political needs, and called him a caretaker premier “without a mandate.” “Netanyahu, don’t you dare use Israel’s security for your political needs,” Eisenkot said.

Netanyahu has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years and has divided Israeli society. He faces criminal corruption charges that he denies, sought to revamp the judiciary, and allied with far-right champions of extremist settlers who attack Palestinians in the West Bank with virtual impunity. The International Criminal Court wanted Netanyahu over Israel’s devastating war in Gaza. Now the coalition contest turns on who can assemble the numbers—and whose votes the contenders will accept.