Peru’s farm exports grew just 1.9% from January to August, reaching US$8.005 billion, the exporters’ association ADEX said on Thursday, 8 October. The increase marks a sharp slowdown from growth of 21% in the same period in 2025 and 20% in 2024. For a country of 34 million that leans heavily on agriculture, the slowdown is hitting farmers least able to absorb it.
Peru shipped US$7.856 billion in farm goods a year earlier. Farm exports accounted for about a tenth of the country’s total exports during the period.
Who Bears the Weather Risk
The divide between winners and losers is wide. Blueberry exports rose 47.9% in value, grapes 17.6% and avocados 8.3%. Cocoa tells a different story. San Martín, an Amazon region that produces about half of Peru’s cocoa, faced heavy rain and humidity from March to May. The weather damaged flowering and ripening, and volumes fell. Larger harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana drove world cocoa prices down, squeezing growers a second time. Mangoes, fresh asparagus, citrus and cocoa powder also shipped in lower volumes.
Coffee edged up 0.6% to US$701.7 million, helped by an early harvest that ADEX linked to El Niño. But José Antonio Mejía, chair of ADEX’s coffee and cocoa committee, said this year’s harvest missed its usual June and July peak, with declines of 15% to 30%. He warned the trend could last until year’s end. He called for a plant-health campaign and more resources for small producers.
A Choppy Year, and a Climate Threat Ahead
Five of the first eight months recorded growth; three saw declines. Exports fell 4.8% in May, 0.9% in June and 2.8% in July, according to figures reported by the business daily Gestión. August shipments recovered 1.5%.
Agro-industrial goods, which Peru classifies as non-traditional exports, accounted for 90.3% of farm exports and rose 1.8% to US$7.231 billion. Fruit sales reached US$4.561 billion.
ADEX warned that El Niño, a periodic Pacific warming that brings heat and heavy rain to Peru, could affect northern crops such as blueberries. Northern farm regions, including Piura and La Libertad, grow much of the fruit Peru sells abroad. ENFEN, the state committee that monitors El Niño, said in May that coastal El Niño conditions could last until February 2027, Gestión reported. Its latest update came on 28 September; the committee issues updates every two weeks. How severely the northern fruit harvest will suffer from November remains unclear.
Dependence on a Few Buyers
The United States, the Netherlands and Spain buy 57% of Peru’s non-traditional farm exports. Earlier ADEX data showed U.S. buyers took US$1.4 billion of those goods from January to May, nearly twice the Dutch figure. Shipments of traditional farm goods to the United States, mainly coffee, rose 16.1%. Peru also supplies U.S. shoppers with blueberries, grapes, avocados and asparagus during the off-season.
ADEX hasn’t said how much El Niño contributed to the slowdown; it attributed cocoa losses to heavy rain. Peru’s government hasn’t published a new farm export forecast. The full ADEX release text wasn’t available online, so the detailed figures come from its summary and Gestión’s report.
ENFEN’s next communiqué was expected in mid-October. ADEX’s next monthly report should show whether September brought a recovery. Peru’s total exports, meanwhile, rose 34.3% to US$74.1 billion on mining, ADEX said on 6 October.
Why This Matters:
The numbers show an export sector booming at the top but fragile underneath. Mining lifted Peru’s total exports 34.3%, while farm shipments barely moved. Weather shocks hit small producers like cocoa growers in San Martín hardest: they face lost harvests and falling world prices at once. Mejía’s call for a plant-health campaign and more resources for small producers points to a role for public programs, not just market forces, in cushioning climate losses. ENFEN says coastal El Niño conditions could last until February 2027, and the government hasn’t published a new forecast. The question is whether public support arrives before the northern fruit harvest does. Growers can’t control the Pacific, but policy can decide who absorbs the damage.